A Peek into Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO Plans, Valuation Could Reach Rp 1,270 Trillion
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Elon Musk’s space technology company, SpaceX, has initiated the process of filing for an initial public offering (IPO) in secret. The documents have reportedly been submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
In the IPO plan, SpaceX targets a company valuation of US175billionorapproximatelyRp29, 730trillion(assuminganexchangerateofRp16, 990perUS). The target fundraising from the public is estimated to reach US$75 billion, equivalent to Rp1,271 trillion.
The process of listing on the stock exchange, scheduled for mid-year, has the potential to become the largest IPO in the history of the global capital market. The value of the offering is projected to surpass the previous record held by Alibaba and Saudi Aramco.
The magnitude of this valuation does not arise by chance but is supported by the transformation of SpaceX’s business model, which has evolved from a mere rocket manufacturing company into an integrated technology infrastructure conglomerate.
Absolute Dominance in the Commercial Launch Sector
The most crucial fundamental factor supporting SpaceX’s high valuation is the company’s dominance approaching absolute monopoly levels in the commercial launch industry.
Leveraging reusable rocket technology on a sustainable basis, particularly the Falcon series and the Starship launch system, SpaceX aims to significantly reduce the cost of delivering logistics to orbit.
This structural efficiency enables the company to achieve record productivity by realising 165 orbital flights throughout 2025.
Competitors in the aerospace sector, whether private companies or national space agencies of other countries, have so far struggled to match SpaceX’s level of reliability, operational frequency, and cost efficiency.
The impact of this dominance is evident in the diversification of the company’s revenue, with contracts from government institutions like NASA now estimated to contribute only a small portion of total operational revenue, underscoring SpaceX’s financial independence in the commercial market.
Telecommunications Expansion Through the Starlink Ecosystem
In addition to launch services, the primary driver of recurring cash flow for SpaceX relies on Starlink satellite internet services. The company currently operates a massive satellite constellation with more than 10,000 active units in low Earth orbit.
This infrastructure effectively transforms SpaceX’s position into a global broadband telecommunications provider. Regular revenue from millions of retail and corporate customers worldwide provides the liquidity needed to fund the company’s capital expenditures.
Furthermore, SpaceX is developing a network architecture based on direct-to-device connectivity. This technological innovation is designed so that conventional mobile phones can connect directly to satellites without relying on ground transmission towers, a strategy that directly disrupts the market share of traditional telecommunications companies.
At the domestic level, Starlink’s global expansion has also touched and disrupted the telecommunications market landscape in Indonesia. Since being officially launched by Elon Musk in Bali in May 2024, SpaceX has officially opened B2C sales for the Indonesian market.
The presence of this satellite internet provides relevant infrastructure solutions for the archipelago’s topography like Indonesia, particularly to address connectivity equity challenges in areas difficult to reach by fibre optic cables or Base Transceiver Station (BTS) towers.
Synergy of Artificial Intelligence and Integrated Ecosystem Concept
Another supporting aspect that legitimises SpaceX’s super-premium valuation is the corporate consolidation action earlier this year that merged the company with the AI entity, xAI, and the social media ecosystem X.
Integrating AI computing infrastructure into space operations provides comprehensive technical advantages.
This technology is used to automate the management of traffic for thousands of satellites, optimise advanced rocket launch trajectories, and distribute global-scale data traffic with low latency.
Through this integrated business structure, SpaceX shares offer investors a means to gain direct exposure to three future industrial strategy sectors—commercial space infrastructure, global satellite telecommunications, and AI model development—under one public entity.
Macroeconomic Challenges and Investment Viability Assessment
Despite these operational strengths, the target public fundraising of US$75 billion or Rp1,274.3 trillion poses its own defence for capital market liquidity.
The current global financial market conditions are still shrouded in high caution due to various macroeconomic sentiments, including geopolitical dynamics between the United States and Iran impacting surging energy prices, as well as volatility in technology sector stock indices.
The success of SpaceX’s initial offering will heavily depend on market stability when the IPO window opens.
For long-term oriented investors, SpaceX shares offer intrinsic value from a company with extremely high industry entry barriers and a technological foundation that is difficult to replicate.
Nevertheless, prospective investors need to carefully consider the risk profile related to share price volatility in the early secondary trading phase, especially if macroeconomic conditions do not yet show stable recovery signals.