85% of Global Births This Year Set to Occur in Asia and Africa

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The latest projections from the United Nations through its World Population Prospects report indicate that approximately 85% of babies born globally in 2026 will originate from Asia and Africa.

In absolute terms, Asia is projected to be the largest contributor to global births with approximately 64.9 million births, or nearly half of the global total, whilst Africa contributes approximately 47.6 million births, or about 36%.

With total global births projected to reach 132.5 million babies in 2026, these two regions increasingly affirm their position as the centre of global demographics.

The dominance of birth numbers in Asia occurs despite numerous countries on the continent, particularly in East Asia, experiencing declining fertility rates. The primary driver maintaining high birth numbers remains the large population base.

Conversely, Africa demonstrates different dynamics. Many countries on the continent remain in the early stages of demographic transition with a very young population structure and relatively high fertility rates. This combination makes Africa the region with the fastest population growth in the world.

In contrast, the contribution of Europe, North America, and Oceania to total global births is diminishing, reflecting trends of population ageing and fertility below replacement level.

This disparity in demographic dynamics has the potential to shift the centre of global economic growth in the long term.

Asia and Africa are estimated to become the primary source of the world’s labour force in the coming decades, whilst simultaneously facing major challenges in providing employment, education, healthcare services, and basic infrastructure.

In Indonesia, the indicator of the percentage of married women aged 15-49 years who gave birth to live children (ALH) in the last two years can serve as an important proxy for understanding short-term fertility trends.

If the proportion is high, this reflects continuing strong birth intensity and has the potential to support population growth. Conversely, a decline in this percentage may indicate slowing fertility, which will eventually be reflected in reduced national birth numbers.