2026 Hajj Scenarios Amid Middle East Escalation: Route Diversions and Potential Cancellation
The government is preparing several scenarios for conducting the 2026 hajj pilgrimage amid Middle East escalation. There are route diversion schemes that could impact budget increases.
“There are several scenarios we may need to mitigate. First, the hajj pilgrimage proceeds amid the conflict situation with conditions of Saudi Arabia opening the hajj pilgrimage, with Indonesia deciding to send pilgrims despite the high-risk possibility,” said Gus Irfan during a working meeting with Commission VIII of the Indonesian Parliament, Senayan, Jakarta, Wednesday (11 March 2026).
Regarding this scenario, the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah will mitigate it through flight route diversions. He mentioned the flight route via the Indian Ocean through East African airspace as an alternative.
“Regarding this scenario, the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah believes it is necessary to mitigate the air bridge route to Saudi Arabia through a flight route diversion scenario away from conflict zones, including Iraq, Syria, Iran, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Mitigation of flight routes by using southern routes via the Indian Ocean and entering through East African airspace or other safe routes,” he stated.
However, changing flight routes will have an impact on aircraft flying distance and budget increases. The ministry is also preparing the option of changing flight time slots.
“If flight time becomes longer, aircraft without long-range capabilities must conduct technical landings in a third country and of course this will result in budget increases,” said Gus Irfan.
“Or third, change the flight time slot so that flights can depart and return on schedule as determined. Fourth, and certainly as I mentioned earlier, this could increase flight costs due to increased distance and flight time from flight route diversions,” he added.
Gus Irfan then explained the second option, namely the possibility of cancellation of the 2026 hajj departure. According to him, high-level diplomacy with Saudi Arabia is required to follow up on this.
“The second scenario is the possibility that the Saudi government will open but Indonesia will cancel the departure due to security risks deemed too great for the safety of Indonesian hajj pilgrims,” said Gus Irfan.
“Regarding this scenario, of course high-level diplomatic negotiations with the Saudi Arabian government are necessary so that costs already paid for accommodation, food, transportation, and other expenses are not wasted but can be used for the 2027 hajj pilgrimage without penalties,” he added.
Gus Irfan also discussed the refund mechanism if the hajj pilgrimage is cancelled. The government is preparing alternatives for prospective pilgrims to withdraw the balance payment of hajj costs.
“Financial mitigation includes refund or reinvestment options, providing options for pilgrims to withdraw hajj balance payment costs without losing the opportunity to depart next year or allowing paid deposits with accumulated benefits compensation as a replacement for waiting costs,” he concluded.