2026 Forest Fires Surge Nearly 20-Fold, IPB Expert Warns of Runaway Climate Impact

The nearly 19-fold surge in forest and land fires during the first four months of 2026 is not merely a statistical anomaly, according to IPB University Professor Bambang Hero Saharjo. He asserted that this phenomenon is a strong signal of a Runaway Climate Impact, where climate mechanisms have sprinted beyond the control of human prevention systems. According to Bambang, the drastic spike proves that natural mechanisms are currently far more powerful than the existing protection systems. He cautioned that ‘normal’ fire alert strategies are no longer relevant for confronting this year’s extreme conditions. ‘A surge of up to 19 times is a signal that natural mechanisms have become so strong they are crashing through our fire prevention systems. We can no longer rely on ordinary strategies; we need a total war strategy,’ said Bambang on Friday. Bambang expressed deep concern over the government’s slow response. Although danger signs have been visible since early in the year, some government agencies reportedly declared the situation safe in April, just as fires began to consume parts of the region. He stressed that dismissing ‘small fires’ at the regional and community level risks dragging Indonesia back into a major haze tragedy similar to 2015 or 2019. The increasingly dry terrain, caused by the abrupt transition from three years of La Niña to an extreme El Niño, has turned vegetation into instant fuel that is highly flammable. Beyond natural factors, Bambang highlighted the functional failure of preventive infrastructure such as canal blocking in peatlands. However, he emphasised that the root cause of recurring fires in the same locations is not technical, but economic. ‘As long as land clearing without burning is considered too expensive and law enforcement fails to deliver a commensurate deterrent effect, the smoke will continue to appear every year,’ he added. Bambang warned that the government has only a few weeks to take aggressive preventive action, such as rewetting peatlands and strict law enforcement. If this momentum is missed, he predicted Indonesia will be trapped in a firefighting crisis that is far more costly and less effective once the peak of the dry season arrives. ‘It is not impossible that we will see a repeat of the 2015 or 2019 crisis scenario if this hotspot trend continues into the peak of the dry season,’ he concluded.