2026 El Nino Predicted to Arrive Earlier and Potentially Become a Super El Nino
High volatility is likely to continue until the end of May.
The El Nino climate phenomenon is predicted to appear earlier than expected this year. US federal forecasts indicate a historically strong climate pattern, which could trigger extreme weather changes around the world.
According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), El Nino is characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon usually occurs every two to seven years and has a significant impact on global weather patterns.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced that the La Nina phase has officially ended. Currently, climate modeling shows a rapid transition to El Nino with a very high probability.
Matthew Sittel, assistant state climatologist at Kansas State University, said there is a possibility of a Super El Nino condition. This phenomenon occurs when temperatures rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Since 1950, only four Super El Ninos have been recorded worldwide.
Although a stronger El Nino does not always mean more extreme weather, NOAA estimates there is a 50% chance that this year’s El Nino will develop into a strong category. The main impacts are usually felt between October and May.
In general, the most common impacts include:
The experts emphasize that the formation of El Nino requires a complex interaction between warm sea surface temperatures and trade winds. This interaction creates a cycle that amplifies the warming. The complexity of this atmospheric interaction makes predicting El Nino, especially in the spring, a challenge for climate scientists.
The public and related sectors such as agriculture and disaster management are advised to start monitoring the development of this phenomenon. This is because the impact of El Nino can affect food security and global hydrometeorological disaster patterns. (News Nation Now/I-2)
AGRICULTURE Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman believes that the impact of the super El Nino phenomenon on sectors outside of agriculture is relatively limited.
RESEARCHER from the Center of Reform on Economics (CoRE), Eliza Mardian, warned that the super El Nino phenomenon is a serious risk to the national food system.
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