10 Iranian Products Widely Imported by Indonesia, Including Nuclear Reactors
Indonesia’s imports from Iran were recorded at US$8.848 million throughout January-December 2025, equivalent to approximately Rp 149 billion (at the exchange rate of US$1 = Rp 16,860). This figure represents a 20.01% year-on-year contraction.
This contraction occurred before the geopolitical situation entered its most volatile phase in late February 2026. This means the weakening of trade flows had already formed before open conflict escalated.
Structurally, principal commodities remain concentrated in fruits and nuts (HS 08) valued at US$5.92 million. This value represents nearly two-thirds of total imports from Iran. Below this are iron and steel (HS 72) at US$0.77 million, machinery and mechanical equipment (HS 84) at US$0.70 million, organic chemicals (HS 29) at US$0.46 million, and mineral fuels (HS 27) at US$0.45 million. These five categories effectively form the primary foundation of trade. Indonesia’s import structure from Iran remains anchored to primary commodities and intermediate materials for heavy industry.
However, a different story emerges when examining growth rates. The highest increases come from very small-value items. Layered industrial textile fabrics (HS 59) surged 6,931%, albumin substances and adhesives (HS 35) rose 6,003%, watches and clocks (HS 91) grew 2,800%, and processed cocoa (HS 18) increased 1,721%. Paper (HS 48) and rubber (HS 40) also recorded growth exceeding 1,300%. Nevertheless, their absolute values remain negligible. HS 59 was only US$0.000211 million, HS 35 US$0.000732 million, and HS 91 US$0.000116 million. Even rubber, which showed significant growth, amounted to only US$0.037 million. These increases reflect the opening of small transactions or specific project needs rather than shifts in major trade flows.
Notably, special woven fabrics (HS 58) are entering the top 10 list by value, reaching US$0.107 million. Plastics (HS 39), natural lac and resins (HS 13), and optical and medical instruments (HS 90) also appear on the highest-value list, though their shares remain limited.
Overall, the 20% contraction demonstrates that weakening has been concentrated on high-value commodities. If fruits or machinery experience corrections, the impact is directly felt on total imports. Given such a concentrated structure, minor changes to principal HS categories immediately affect the aggregate.
Iran Enters Open Conflict Phase
The situation became considerably more complex following 28 February 2026, when President Donald Trump announced major military operations against Iran in collaboration with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The strikes targeted nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and Iran’s top leadership.
Iranian media reported explosions in Tehran and several strategic facilities. Counter-attacks followed. Iran launched approximately 170 ballistic missiles and drones towards Israel and positions linked to US forces in the Gulf region.
Most shocking was the Iranian media report of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death in the Tehran strike. If permanently confirmed within Iran’s political structure, this would represent the gravest leadership crisis since the 1979 Revolution.
On the domestic front, Iran had already been shaken by waves of demonstrations since January 2026 amid economic pressure and currency depreciation. The external conflict now risks deepening internal uncertainty.
In the near term, Indonesia’s import volume from Iran is relatively small compared to total national imports. With values below US$9 million annually, direct risks to Indonesia’s trade balance are limited.
However, two points merit close attention.
First, disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Should Iran genuinely restrict shipping traffic, the impact would not be on direct imports from Iran, but rather on global energy prices. Second, geopolitical volatility can disrupt supply chains for primary commodities such as dried fruits and certain chemicals.
Indonesia-Iran trade structure exhibits high dependence on a single primary commodity. Under normal conditions, this pattern is stable. In open conflict situations, such concentration becomes a vulnerable point.
CNBC Indonesia Research