Yudhoyono's win, what next?

Indonesian opposition presidential candidate Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has become the first President ever directly elected in the country's history.

Perhaps most noticeable about the latest presidential election since the fall of Soeharto in 1998 was the almost complete absence of violence or unrest, in contrast to the run-up to the 1999 elections, which brought Megawati Soekarnoputri in as vice president under president Abdurrahman Wahid.

Wahid's ouster in 2001 was also marked by street demonstrations and violence by both supporters and opponents of the ousted president's policies and actions. By contrast, the 2004 elections have seen few large-scale, hostile demonstrations and little violence.

Yudhoyono is likely to be welcomed with open arms by Australia and the United States, as well as by our nearest neighbors. Unlike Megawati, Yudhoyono is a former military man, and his relations with the military and the security forces are much more stable.

For neighboring countries, a Yudhoyono victory brings the prospect of a more stable Indonesia, one much more ready to tackle fundamentalist Islamist militant threats and to settle local insurgency issues. In addition, the military is much less likely to constrain domestic counterterrorism measures with a "rule of law" mentality that only serves to slow response times and hinders investigations.

With a better understanding of, and relationship with, the military, Yudhoyono is also better positioned to reaffirm relations with the United States, Australia and other Western nations, to reestablish or strengthen waning military ties and to be able to secure new and modern supplies of weaponry for Indonesia.

Ultimately, though Yudhoyono will attempt to retain the appearance, if not reality, of full democracy in Indonesia, his relationship with the military and intelligence communities -- along with the international interest in stability and aggressive counterterrorism action -- will place Indonesia on the path toward more centralized control and an integrated security apparatus.

Although the goal may be to resemble such stable states as Malaysia and Singapore, should things go wrong Indonesia could easily find itself more closely resembling the Indonesia of Soeharto -- stable and reliable, but far from democratic.

ABDUL NAEEM Lahore, Pakistan