Yudhoyono's win, what next?
Yudhoyono's win, what next?
Indonesian opposition presidential candidate Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono has become the first President ever directly elected in
the country's history.
Perhaps most noticeable about the latest presidential election
since the fall of Soeharto in 1998 was the almost complete
absence of violence or unrest, in contrast to the run-up to the
1999 elections, which brought Megawati Soekarnoputri in as vice
president under president Abdurrahman Wahid.
Wahid's ouster in 2001 was also marked by street
demonstrations and violence by both supporters and opponents of
the ousted president's policies and actions. By contrast, the
2004 elections have seen few large-scale, hostile demonstrations
and little violence.
Yudhoyono is likely to be welcomed with open arms by Australia
and the United States, as well as by our nearest neighbors.
Unlike Megawati, Yudhoyono is a former military man, and his
relations with the military and the security forces are much more
stable.
For neighboring countries, a Yudhoyono victory brings the
prospect of a more stable Indonesia, one much more ready to
tackle fundamentalist Islamist militant threats and to settle
local insurgency issues. In addition, the military is much
less likely to constrain domestic counterterrorism measures with
a "rule of law" mentality that only serves to slow response times
and hinders investigations.
With a better understanding of, and relationship with, the
military, Yudhoyono is also better positioned to reaffirm
relations with the United States, Australia and other Western
nations, to reestablish or strengthen waning military ties and to
be able to secure new and modern supplies of weaponry for
Indonesia.
Ultimately, though Yudhoyono will attempt to retain the
appearance, if not reality, of full democracy in Indonesia, his
relationship with the military and intelligence communities --
along with the international interest in stability and aggressive
counterterrorism action -- will place Indonesia on the path
toward more centralized control and an integrated security
apparatus.
Although the goal may be to resemble such stable states as
Malaysia and Singapore, should things go wrong Indonesia could
easily find itself more closely resembling the Indonesia of
Soeharto -- stable and reliable, but far from democratic.
ABDUL NAEEM
Lahore, Pakistan