Year-end Optimism

Year-end Optimism

Positive thinking will help a patient stand a better chance of
recovering. While a human being is a living organism, a state is
a social organism. Hence, positive thinking may also help an
ailing state like Indonesia, battered these past four years by a
multi-dimensional crisis, stand a better chance of recovering.

There are several reasons why Indonesians must be optimistic
about their futures. First, the domestic market, despite some
limitations, can still develop. Then, exports are still in good
shape although some advanced countries usually purchasing
Indonesian commodities are now sliding into recession.

The latest report released by the Central Bureau of Statistics
shows trade between January and October netted a surplus of
US$21.4 billion, a figure below $25 billion recorded in the same
period last year but good enough given the worsening external
factors, particularly an oil price drop in the world market.

At home, the state coffers have received fresh earnings from
the sales of some assets formerly owned by the Salim Group but
now controlled by the government. Then, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia
Tbk has returned its Bank Indonesia liquidity support loan worth
Rp 14.8 trillion to the state.

Another significant development contributing to this year-end
optimism is the formula for the sales of PT Semen Gresik group.
In this context PT Semen Padang in West Sumatra and PT Semen
Tonasa in South Sulawesi has demanded for a spin-off from Semen
Gresik. Using the new formula, the government will sell all its
shares in Semen Gresik to Cemex, a foreign investor, but will
remain the majority shareholders of Semen Padang and Semen
Tonasa. Besides, it will pocket over US$200 million from this
transaction. This formula is expected to comfort West Sumatra and
South Sulawesi provincial administrations, both hating to see
foreigners control their assets.

Finally, the arrest of Hutomo Mandala Putra, a fugitive for
more than a year, has come as good news although its significance
will be shown by legal proceedings against him later.

Progress in the economic and legal enforcement sectors alone
will not be a quick panacea for Indonesia's chronic crisis. At
least, though, it gives hope that with greater seriousness, the
desire to get out of this crisis in the next few years is no
longer but a dream.

-- Bisnis Indonesia, Jakarta