Year-end Optimism

Positive thinking will help a patient stand a better chance of recovering. While a human being is a living organism, a state is a social organism. Hence, positive thinking may also help an ailing state like Indonesia, battered these past four years by a multi-dimensional crisis, stand a better chance of recovering.

There are several reasons why Indonesians must be optimistic about their futures. First, the domestic market, despite some limitations, can still develop. Then, exports are still in good shape although some advanced countries usually purchasing Indonesian commodities are now sliding into recession.

The latest report released by the Central Bureau of Statistics shows trade between January and October netted a surplus of US$21.4 billion, a figure below $25 billion recorded in the same period last year but good enough given the worsening external factors, particularly an oil price drop in the world market.

At home, the state coffers have received fresh earnings from the sales of some assets formerly owned by the Salim Group but now controlled by the government. Then, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk has returned its Bank Indonesia liquidity support loan worth Rp 14.8 trillion to the state.

Another significant development contributing to this year-end optimism is the formula for the sales of PT Semen Gresik group. In this context PT Semen Padang in West Sumatra and PT Semen Tonasa in South Sulawesi has demanded for a spin-off from Semen Gresik. Using the new formula, the government will sell all its shares in Semen Gresik to Cemex, a foreign investor, but will remain the majority shareholders of Semen Padang and Semen Tonasa. Besides, it will pocket over US$200 million from this transaction. This formula is expected to comfort West Sumatra and South Sulawesi provincial administrations, both hating to see foreigners control their assets.

Finally, the arrest of Hutomo Mandala Putra, a fugitive for more than a year, has come as good news although its significance will be shown by legal proceedings against him later.

Progress in the economic and legal enforcement sectors alone will not be a quick panacea for Indonesia's chronic crisis. At least, though, it gives hope that with greater seriousness, the desire to get out of this crisis in the next few years is no longer but a dream.

-- Bisnis Indonesia, Jakarta