Year-end hopes and doubts

Year-end hopes and doubts

As the old year moves towards a close, Indonesia can look
toward the new with a measure of hope and optimism, although it
continues to face a mountain of hurdles and challenges that is
daunting, to say the least. On the plus side, peace and order
have been restored -- to a considerable extent, at least, and for
now -- in Maluku, as well as in Poso, Central Sulawesi, and other
areas that have in the past few years been torn by sectarian
conflict.

This is an accomplishment that should not be underestimated,
given that too many parties are suspected of having an interest,
overt or otherwise, in keeping these local conflicts alive. Proof
of this can be found in the fact that police authorities in South
Sulawesi made no bones about their suspicion that some of the
perpetrators in the Makassar bombing incident earlier this month
were also involved in the Poso conflict. A strong indication in
this direction, officers said, was that the bombers had aimed
their destructive work at businesses owned by Coordinating
Minister for People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla, who brokered the peace
deal in Poso as well as in Maluku.

A major accomplishment was the closing of a comprehensive
peace deal for Aceh with the help of the Swiss-based Henry Dunant
Centre (HDC). It is hoped that the presence of an independent
body of international observers to monitor observance of the deal
by both sides will help to bring finally a lasting peace to this
northernmost territory of Indonesia that has been torn by armed
conflict between government forces and groups fighting for
independence for more than 26 years. Even so, 28 armed incidents
involving both sides were recorded up to 10 days after the
signing of the deal on Dec.9 and at least two Army soldiers were
killed, illustrating the difficulties that may lie ahead.

Some progress was also made in the past year in the field of
economic recovery. The rupiah has more or less stabilized at
around Rp 9,000 to the U.S. dollar, and some signs of recovery
have been visible in the real sector. Nevertheless, the
shortcomings remain intimidating -- a situation that is
aggravated by the lack of security, weak law enforcement and
labor unrest. Needless to say, the horrendous bombing on Oct. 12
in Bali has not helped to improve the condition. The advisories
issued by several governments abroad for their citizens to avoid
traveling to Bali, or Indonesia altogether, have affected not
only Bali, but other areas as well, especially those relying on
tourist dollars for their income.

Rampant corruption remains another irritating problem that
continues to undermine the government's prestige. Other issues
that continue to be of concern in the past year are the apparent
lack of government determination to resolve old human rights
problems and the slow speed at which the process of democratic
reform is proceeding -- if, indeed it is taking place at all.
Presumably, the reason here is that the major political parties
that dominate the House of Representatives (DPR) and the People's
Consultative Assembly (MPR) have their eyes fixed on winning the
2004 general election -- seemingly at the cost of democratic
reform.

All in all, problems still abound in the nation's balance for
the year that is coming to a close. Nevertheless, there is room
for hope. Even the most horrific event that occurred this year,
the Bali bombing, has brought some good for this country and for
the nation. For one thing, it has forced the development of the
National Police into a really professional force that is capable
of protecting the public. For another, it has awakened the nation
from its complacency into a realization that terrorist cells do
exist in this country.

To abandon our complacency and admit the presence of a
frightening reality is at least a good beginning.