Year-End Alert: Prices Expected to Rise Again

Bank Indonesia (BI) expects retail prices at the end of the year, specifically in December, to experience an increase that could affect inflation.

This is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for December 2026, which rose compared to the previous month.

“From the price side, inflationary pressure in December 2026 is expected to increase. This is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for December 2026, which is forecast at 168.1, higher than the November 2026 IEH of 167.5,” according to the June 2026 Retail Sales Survey report by Bank Indonesia.

The expected increase in retail prices at the end of the year is in line with rising retail sales expectations for December 2026.

The Sales Expectation Index (IEP) for December 2026 was recorded at 171.6, higher than the November 2026 period of 153.8, driven by the Christmas and New Year holidays.

On the other hand, inflationary pressure for the following month, September, is expected to decline. BI recorded the September 2026 IEH at 155.2, lower than the August 2026 IEH of 178.0.

The expected decline in retail prices in September is in line with the expected decrease in retail sales in September 2026, reflected in the September IEP which fell to 148.3, lower than the previous period’s 159.8.

“Respondents informed that the decline in the September 2026 IEP was influenced by normalisation following the Republic of Indonesia’s Independence Day (HUT RI) activities,” the survey stated.