Y2K could become second Asian contagion

Y2K could become second Asian contagion

By Jason Gutierrez

MANILA (AFP): A computer glitch linked to the year 2000 could
spread like a contagion similar to the currency crisis that
battered Asia, the World Bank's principal information officer
warned.

"Regional cooperation is vital," Chit Tharntong told delegates
to a global Year 2000, also known as Y2K, conference here.

"Failure in one country can as easily spread to another
country even though it is more prepared."

Rapid regional development over the past decade has been
accompanied by "enormous growth" in computerization and transfer
of technology but not in "capacity build-up," Tharntong said.
"Growth in technology is very Y2K vulnerable," he stressed.

The World Bank has even been forced to come up with strategies
to check the rate of compliance of its estimated 300 development
projects in the region to ensure they would not be affected by
the so-called millennium bug.

Tharntong said the Asian economic crunch which started in July
1997 exacerbated the millennium bug problem as it "minimized
resources" that could have been used in correcting the glitch.

Among the major obstacles to developing remedial programs were
"incredible bottlenecks" in project implementation as well as a
general lack of awareness of the problem.

Many firms were also too complacent and were trying to
"reinvent" solutions to the problem, rather than learning from
sound approaches already developed by industry institutions.

"There are firms that keep running reports that 70 percent of
work (with regard to Y2K) is done," Tharntong said.

"Frankly most of the time, I do not know what they mean," he
added.

The millennium bug problem is a "major project management
challenge," that is "significantly" under-appreciated in the
region, he said.

"In many situations, we are talking about thousands of
suppliers, vendors and people involved in the creation of a
product that we may overlook something resulting in collateral
problems," he said.

At the same time, he urged the public to consistently question
their governments about what was being done to counter the
problem.

"Confidence is not simply created when senior government
officials get up and declare something (is being done right),"
Tharntong said.

"We've seen panic rising before and we want to avoid that," he
said.

Joe Riley, who heads an information consultancy group in
Australia, also warned that Asia would be severely affected by
the Y2K problem, noting it could affect key sectors from water
systems to electricity.

"This is going to affect every man, woman and child in every
nation," Riley told a press briefing.

Asian countries should "start dealing with contingency plans"
to avoid any major catastrophes.

He said the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand were among
Asian countries that are "least prepared" having begun
implementing contingency plans too late.

Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea were among those
expected to be able to contain any fallout from the year 2000
bug.