Y2K could become second Asian contagion

Y2K could become second Asian contagion

By Jason Gutierrez

MANILA (AFP): A computer glitch linked to the year 2000 could spread like a contagion similar to the currency crisis that battered Asia, the World Bank's principal information officer warned.

"Regional cooperation is vital," Chit Tharntong told delegates to a global Year 2000, also known as Y2K, conference here.

"Failure in one country can as easily spread to another country even though it is more prepared."

Rapid regional development over the past decade has been accompanied by "enormous growth" in computerization and transfer of technology but not in "capacity build-up," Tharntong said. "Growth in technology is very Y2K vulnerable," he stressed.

The World Bank has even been forced to come up with strategies to check the rate of compliance of its estimated 300 development projects in the region to ensure they would not be affected by the so-called millennium bug.

Tharntong said the Asian economic crunch which started in July 1997 exacerbated the millennium bug problem as it "minimized resources" that could have been used in correcting the glitch.

Among the major obstacles to developing remedial programs were "incredible bottlenecks" in project implementation as well as a general lack of awareness of the problem.

Many firms were also too complacent and were trying to "reinvent" solutions to the problem, rather than learning from sound approaches already developed by industry institutions.

"There are firms that keep running reports that 70 percent of work (with regard to Y2K) is done," Tharntong said.

"Frankly most of the time, I do not know what they mean," he added.

The millennium bug problem is a "major project management challenge," that is "significantly" under-appreciated in the region, he said.

"In many situations, we are talking about thousands of suppliers, vendors and people involved in the creation of a product that we may overlook something resulting in collateral problems," he said.

At the same time, he urged the public to consistently question their governments about what was being done to counter the problem.

"Confidence is not simply created when senior government officials get up and declare something (is being done right)," Tharntong said.

"We've seen panic rising before and we want to avoid that," he said.

Joe Riley, who heads an information consultancy group in Australia, also warned that Asia would be severely affected by the Y2K problem, noting it could affect key sectors from water systems to electricity.

"This is going to affect every man, woman and child in every nation," Riley told a press briefing.

Asian countries should "start dealing with contingency plans" to avoid any major catastrophes.

He said the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand were among Asian countries that are "least prepared" having begun implementing contingency plans too late.

Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea were among those expected to be able to contain any fallout from the year 2000 bug.