'Xanana' wins landslide victory to lead E. Timor

'Xanana' wins landslide victory to lead E. Timor

Joanne Collins, Reuters, Dili, East Timor

Former guerrilla leader and independence hero Jose Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmao has an unbeatable lead in East Timor's first presidential election, according to a preliminary count of votes released on Tuesday.

But once the formal announcement of Xanana's long-anticipated victory -- expected on Wednesday -- is out of the way, he and the world's newest nation face a tough task rebuilding East Timor and luring investment to keep it from becoming a forgotten backwater.

East Timor's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) said Xanana, who was always the hot favorite, had won 11 of the 12 districts counted so far, with the vote in only one district still to be tallied.

"With the results we have presented so far -- which is 12 districts out of 13 -- we have seen Xanana win 11 of those. We do not think the results will be very surprising when we finally announce the national figure tomorrow," IEC chief electoral officer Carlos Valenzuela told Reuters.

Impoverished East Timor formally becomes independent on May 20 when the United Nations hands over to a fledgling leadership. Xanana had been widely tipped to score an overwhelming victory over his only rival, Francisco Xavier do Amaral, in Sunday's election. The district he has lost was one of the least populated in the tiny territory of some 740,000 people.

A tally of those district results already in, collated by Reuters, showed Xanana had won 79.4 percent of the some 89 percent of votes counted.

The United Nations has overseen East Timor since it overwhelmingly voted to break free from Indonesia in August 1999.

Although Indonesia had agreed to the referendum, the result unleased an orgy of violence by pro-Jakarta militias backed by elements in the Indonesian military. The United Nations estimates more than 1,000 Timorese were killed before and after the vote while much of the territory was left in ruins.

One key task for Xanana will be cushioning the economic blow when the UN mission winds down across the territory.

The IMF's senior resident representative in East Timor, Kadhim Al-Eyd, said the scaling down was a major challenge.

"The private sector has to come in and invest and provide opportunities for employment," he said.

The UN mission is already thinning. The civilian component will be cut to 100 after independence from some 1,000 at its peak and the peacekeeping unit will total 5,000 from a peak of 8,000.

Xanana, personable and charismatic, has charm that could help bring in business. And East Timor is not without some resources, such as offshore energy reserves and high-quality coffee.

But Xanana will also need to smooth ties with the Fretilin party, which controls parliament and recently had rocky relations with the expected new president.

East Timor's new constitution outlines a semi-presidential system of government where an elected president can dismiss the prime minister and veto legislation but in a framework of strong checks and balances that makes cooperation critical.

Gusmao has said there was no tension between himself and Fretilin, just differences of opinion, but has also said he would use his powers of veto if necessary.

"I am aware of the risk of usurping the power of other institutions but...I will do everything to avoid a crisis because of a so-called conflict with the government," he said.

Valentin Ximenes, dean of political science at the National University in Dili, played down the differences with Fretilin.

"I don't have any worries about it...(but) above all he will need to maintain stability and unity throughout the country, and that will play a vital role from the very first day of his presidency," Ximenes said.

There is also the matter of pro-Jakarta militia members and their sympathizers, many of whom remain in East Timor.