'Xanana' wins landslide victory to lead E. Timor

'Xanana' wins landslide victory to lead E. Timor

Joanne Collins, Reuters, Dili, East Timor

Former guerrilla leader and independence hero Jose Alexandre
"Xanana" Gusmao has an unbeatable lead in East Timor's first
presidential election, according to a preliminary count of votes
released on Tuesday.

But once the formal announcement of Xanana's long-anticipated
victory -- expected on Wednesday -- is out of the way, he and the
world's newest nation face a tough task rebuilding East Timor and
luring investment to keep it from becoming a forgotten backwater.

East Timor's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) said
Xanana, who was always the hot favorite, had won 11 of the 12
districts counted so far, with the vote in only one district
still to be tallied.

"With the results we have presented so far -- which is 12
districts out of 13 -- we have seen Xanana win 11 of those. We do
not think the results will be very surprising when we finally
announce the national figure tomorrow," IEC chief electoral
officer Carlos Valenzuela told Reuters.

Impoverished East Timor formally becomes independent on May 20
when the United Nations hands over to a fledgling leadership.
Xanana had been widely tipped to score an overwhelming victory
over his only rival, Francisco Xavier do Amaral, in Sunday's
election. The district he has lost was one of the least populated
in the tiny territory of some 740,000 people.

A tally of those district results already in, collated by
Reuters, showed Xanana had won 79.4 percent of the some 89
percent of votes counted.

The United Nations has overseen East Timor since it
overwhelmingly voted to break free from Indonesia in August 1999.

Although Indonesia had agreed to the referendum, the result
unleased an orgy of violence by pro-Jakarta militias backed by
elements in the Indonesian military. The United Nations estimates
more than 1,000 Timorese were killed before and after the vote
while much of the territory was left in ruins.

One key task for Xanana will be cushioning the economic blow
when the UN mission winds down across the territory.

The IMF's senior resident representative in East Timor, Kadhim
Al-Eyd, said the scaling down was a major challenge.

"The private sector has to come in and invest and provide
opportunities for employment," he said.

The UN mission is already thinning. The civilian component
will be cut to 100 after independence from some 1,000 at its peak
and the peacekeeping unit will total 5,000 from a peak of 8,000.

Xanana, personable and charismatic, has charm that could help
bring in business. And East Timor is not without some resources,
such as offshore energy reserves and high-quality coffee.

But Xanana will also need to smooth ties with the Fretilin
party, which controls parliament and recently had rocky relations
with the expected new president.

East Timor's new constitution outlines a semi-presidential
system of government where an elected president can dismiss the
prime minister and veto legislation but in a framework of strong
checks and balances that makes cooperation critical.

Gusmao has said there was no tension between himself and
Fretilin, just differences of opinion, but has also said he would
use his powers of veto if necessary.

"I am aware of the risk of usurping the power of other
institutions but...I will do everything to avoid a crisis because
of a so-called conflict with the government," he said.

Valentin Ximenes, dean of political science at the National
University in Dili, played down the differences with Fretilin.

"I don't have any worries about it...(but) above all he will
need to maintain stability and unity throughout the country, and
that will play a vital role from the very first day of his
presidency," Ximenes said.

There is also the matter of pro-Jakarta militia members and
their sympathizers, many of whom remain in East Timor.