World's oldest communist insurgences fizzling out in RP

World's oldest communist insurgences fizzling out in RP

Is one of the world's oldest communist insurgencies fizzling
out in the Philippines? Johanna Son of Inter Press Service
reports.

MANILA (IPS): According to a joke doing the rounds in
diplomatic circles in the Philippine capital, the only communists
left in Europe are Filipino comrades in the Netherlands.

The anecdote is meant to poke fun at Filipino leftists living
in exile in the Dutch university town of Utrecht, including
communist leaders Jose Maria Sison and Luis Jalandoni.

The joke also reflects a growing perception in the Philippines
that one of the world's oldest communist insurgences, crippled by
infighting, is fizzling out in a country where landlessness and
gross inequities had for decades provided a fertile ground for
revolution.

This perception of a collapsed revolutionary movement does not
augur well for Philippine communists who are preparing for a
third round of negotiations with the government later this year
to discuss the agenda for formal peace talks.

The second round of "exploratory" talks were held in June in
Breukelen in the Netherlands between the Communist-led National
Democratic Front (NDF) and President Fidel Ramos's negotiators to
salvage negotiations that have made little progress in two years.

Ramos launched the peace process as part of his two-pronged
effort to resolve the two-decade old leftist insurgency, and a
Moslem secessionist movement in the southern island of Mindanao.

Philippine military chief, Gen. Arturo Enrile this week
declared a "strategic victory" over the communist New Peoples'
Army (NPA). "The Communist Party of the Philippines ceases to be
a major threat to national security," he said.

Since he assumed office in 1992, Ramos has legalized the
Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), released leftist
detainees and declared amnesty to rebels.

But after two years of rapprochement, the NDF and the
government have not even started discussing substantive issues.
So far, all they have been able to agree on is to keep talking.

"Things are not going to move at a hurried pace," predicts
Alex Magno, a columnist for the Manila Chronicle newspaper.

The first round of exploratory talks in The Hague in September
1992 produced an accord on four main issues for discussion: human
rights, international humanitarian law, socio-economic reforms,
political and constitutional reforms.

But since then, the dialog has been stalled or at times nearly
scuttled because of the capture of guerrilla leaders,
disagreements over venue for talks and the need for mediators.

Another obstacle has been the squabbling within CPP ranks
between orthodox and reformist blocs.

The split emerged after the Manila rebel leaders criticized
the Dutch-based leadership's call for a return to Maoist doctrine
of armed struggle. In December 1992, CPP founder Sison branded
breakaway rebels back home "traitors" and ordered defiant units
dissolved. The two factions have since traded death threats in
the press.

In the countryside, the insurgency has been sputtering ever
since the main rallying point -- dictator Ferdinand Marcos -- was
deposed in 1986. Marole was further hit by the leftist split, the
decline of communism in Europe and the pullout of U.S. military
bases from the Philippines in 1992.

The CPP's armed wing, the New Peoples' Army (NPA) has not
launched a major offensive in months. Even its urban hit squad,
called the Sparrows, which used to carry out regular daring
executions on Manila streets has been relatively silent.

These days, headlines in the Manila media are dominated by the
military's pursuit of a band of Moslem extremists called the Abu
Sayyaf in Mindanao. The group has been holding a Catholic priest
hostage since June.

"The number of NPA-initiated offensives has been greatly
reduced," admits Satur Ocampo, former NDF negotiator in the
failed 1986 peace talks who has spent four years in jail. But
Ocampo says this is because the NPA's shift in strategy of doing
political work instead of engaging military units.

"The insurgency has weakened," says Gen. Arturo Enrile, the
military chief. "Only 1,000 villages, or 2.3 percent of the total
number of villages are influenced by the rebels." The Philippine
military estimates that the number of NPA regulars fell from a
peak of 25,800 in 1988 to just over 8,000 last year.

Peace talks have also been hindered by disagreement over the
issue of political prisoners, which the NDF says number 300 and
whose release it seeks as a goodwill gesture. But the government
says there are no political prisoners left in its jails. "The
talks cannot really move fast because of the fundamental
differences between the two sides," Ocampo says.

Defense experts here believe that time is on the government's
side and the infighting within the CPP would cause the insurgency
to self-destruct. an internal paper by defense officials say the
times for talks is ripe when "the enemy is weak" but they are
also in no hurry since time is on their side. By waiting, they
hope the left may die a natural death.

But division in the communists' ranks also poses problems for
the government, according to Howard Dee, the chief government
negotiator. He says unity would ensure that a settlement is
enforceable.

Ocampo feels the infighting within the left gives Ramos an
opportunity to think he has "time enough to keep the peace talks
going while chipping away at the movement's strengths".

"The relative calm in the countryside could merely presage a
resumption if revolutionary forces succeed in regaining lost
ground and rebuilding forces," says Ocampo.

The next two or three years will be crucial. Will the
Communists recoup their strength, or will Ramos's economic
reforms uplift living standards in the countryside and further
erode the support for the insurgency?