World rice supply is expected to tighten

World rice supply is expected to tighten

MANILA (AFP): Global rice supply is expected to tighten amid a population boom and declining arable land, and Asia's low-income countries will come under severe pressure, economists warned yesterday.

International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) expert Mahabub Hossain told a world rice conference that while Asia has done "remarkably well" in meeting food needs over the past 30 years, "a deceleration in the growth in rice supply has already set in."

Asia is the top producer of the commodity, but also consumes 90 percent of the supply, IRRI officials say.

"The yield rate has started to decline and reversing the trend will not be easy," Hossain said. Global rice production grew a mere 1.7 percent between 1985 and 1993, compared to 3.2 percent in the previous decade and 3.6 percent 10 years before that, he added.

IRRI agricultural economist Prabhu Pingali told the conference Asia may become a net rice importer of up to 10 million tons annually after 2005 due to the shift of farm workers to the industrial sector.

Hossain said the area planted to rice has fallen. In China the surface has dropped to 32 million hectares from 37 million hectares (91.39 million acres) in 1976 and in the Philippines to 3.2 million hectares from 3.7 million hectares over the same period.

"With population growing, the per capita availability of arable land and fresh water has been declining rapidly," he added.

He said China now supported 17 people per hectare of arable land, 13 people per hectare in Bangladesh, 11 in Vietnam, between eight and 10 in India, Indonesia and the Philippines, with only Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia having favorable endowments of between two and four people per hectare.

Main reason

"The main force behind the increasing demand for rice in the future is going to be population pressures," with the Asian population expected to rise 18 percent in the current decade and 53 percent over the next 30 years, Hossain said.

"Demand for rice may increase by 69 percent by 2025," he said. "This means that Asian rice production must increase from about 480 million tons today to more than 800 million tons over the next 30 years."

Hossain said "the challenge to sustaining food security will be more difficult for the lower income countries in Asia, which had a large proportion of areas under less favorable rice-growing environments."

These include much of the upland and rainfed lowland areas of eastern India, Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Laos -- all of which have yet to benefit from modern technology. "Scientists have had limited success in developing high-yielding rices that can adapt to floods, droughts, temporary submergence, strong winds, and problem soils," he said.

IRRI scientists are now developing a new "super rice" which is projected to break the 10 tons per hectare yield barrier by 30 percent, but it would only be available to farmers by 2000 at the earliest.

Average yield in irrigated areas is now about five tons per hectare and 2.3 tons in non-irrigated lowlands, 1.5 tons in flood-prone areas and 1.1 tons for upland areas, the IRRI said.

Hossain said rice research should focus on the capacity of high-yield varieties to withstand drought, submergence, weeds, nutrient deficiency, pests and diseases which "account for more than 80 percent of the production losses in non-irrigated lowlands and upland areas."