World rice supply is expected to tighten

World rice supply is expected to tighten

MANILA (AFP): Global rice supply is expected to tighten amid a
population boom and declining arable land, and Asia's low-income
countries will come under severe pressure, economists warned
yesterday.

International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) expert Mahabub
Hossain told a world rice conference that while Asia has done
"remarkably well" in meeting food needs over the past 30 years,
"a deceleration in the growth in rice supply has already set in."

Asia is the top producer of the commodity, but also consumes
90 percent of the supply, IRRI officials say.

"The yield rate has started to decline and reversing the trend
will not be easy," Hossain said. Global rice production grew a
mere 1.7 percent between 1985 and 1993, compared to 3.2 percent
in the previous decade and 3.6 percent 10 years before that, he
added.

IRRI agricultural economist Prabhu Pingali told the conference
Asia may become a net rice importer of up to 10 million tons
annually after 2005 due to the shift of farm workers to the
industrial sector.

Hossain said the area planted to rice has fallen. In China the
surface has dropped to 32 million hectares from 37 million
hectares (91.39 million acres) in 1976 and in the Philippines to
3.2 million hectares from 3.7 million hectares over the same
period.

"With population growing, the per capita availability of
arable land and fresh water has been declining rapidly," he
added.

He said China now supported 17 people per hectare of arable
land, 13 people per hectare in Bangladesh, 11 in Vietnam, between
eight and 10 in India, Indonesia and the Philippines, with only
Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia having favorable endowments of
between two and four people per hectare.

Main reason

"The main force behind the increasing demand for rice in the
future is going to be population pressures," with the Asian
population expected to rise 18 percent in the current decade and
53 percent over the next 30 years, Hossain said.

"Demand for rice may increase by 69 percent by 2025," he said.
"This means that Asian rice production must increase from about
480 million tons today to more than 800 million tons over the
next 30 years."

Hossain said "the challenge to sustaining food security will
be more difficult for the lower income countries in Asia, which
had a large proportion of areas under less favorable rice-growing
environments."

These include much of the upland and rainfed lowland areas of
eastern India, Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Laos
-- all of which have yet to benefit from modern technology.
"Scientists have had limited success in developing high-yielding
rices that can adapt to floods, droughts, temporary submergence,
strong winds, and problem soils," he said.

IRRI scientists are now developing a new "super rice" which is
projected to break the 10 tons per hectare yield barrier by 30
percent, but it would only be available to farmers by 2000 at the
earliest.

Average yield in irrigated areas is now about five tons per
hectare and 2.3 tons in non-irrigated lowlands, 1.5 tons in
flood-prone areas and 1.1 tons for upland areas, the IRRI said.

Hossain said rice research should focus on the capacity of
high-yield varieties to withstand drought, submergence, weeds,
nutrient deficiency, pests and diseases which "account for more
than 80 percent of the production losses in non-irrigated
lowlands and upland areas."