WMO warns El Niño could trigger drought in Indonesia
Geneva (ANTARA) - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the El Niño phenomenon has the potential to develop again in the coming months, bringing the risk of drier weather to Indonesia and increasing the threat of extreme weather across various parts of the world.
The United Nations weather agency stated that the probability of El Niño emerging during the June to August period reaches 80 per cent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of this phenomenon persisting at least until November is estimated to be around or even exceeding 90 per cent.
According to the WMO, the development of El Niño is triggered by exceptionally warm water temperatures in the tropical Pacific region. This phenomenon is known to affect global temperature and rainfall patterns and increase the risk of various extreme weather events.
Indonesia is among the regions that could potentially experience drier conditions due to El Niño. In addition to Indonesia, similar impacts are expected in Australia, Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, and parts of South Asia.
The WMO also predicts that air temperatures from June to August will be above normal in almost all parts of the world. Such conditions could increase the risk of heat stress and accelerate the onset of drought in areas experiencing decreased rainfall.
“The science is very clear: El Niño will be upon us in the coming months with 90 per cent certainty. The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a video statement on Tuesday.
“El Niño conditions will exacerbate the impacts of our warming world. The effects will be felt more heavily, reaching further and crossing national borders with devastating speed,” he added.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the world needs to prepare for the possibility of a strong El Niño, as the phenomenon could worsen droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves on both land and sea.
“We need to prepare for the potential of a strong El Niño, which will exacerbate droughts and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves on land and at sea. The recent 2023-2024 El Niño was one of the five strongest ever recorded and played a role in the global temperature records seen in 2024,” said Saulo.
She added that earlier seasonal forecasts and early warning systems are crucial to saving lives and reducing impacts on economies and societies.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern characterised by sea surface temperatures above average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon generally appears every two to seven years and can last for nine to 12 months.
In addition to triggering drier weather in several regions, the WMO warned that El Niño could also increase the risk of flooding in other areas experiencing higher than normal rainfall. Therefore, preparedness measures and early warning systems are considered essential to protect communities and mitigate the resulting economic impacts.