WMO: Risk of Extreme Weather to Increase in Coming Months

El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Friday (3/7). The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that El Niño is forecast to develop swiftly into a strong phenomenon during the July-September 2026 period. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global climate prediction centres show consistent and significant ocean warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal average sea surface temperatures expected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average in key monitoring regions. Forecast models show a very high degree of agreement, increasing confidence in the outlook. El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its impacts extending to many regions of the world. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average. For rainfall, the forecast for the July-September 2026 period shows a pattern consistent with a strengthening El Niño. Above-normal rainfall is more likely in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and much of Australia. In terms of temperature, the latest update predicts a high probability of above-average temperatures over most land areas between 60 degrees South and 60 degrees North, encompassing nearly all densely populated areas outside the polar regions. According to the WMO, El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last nine to twelve months. The phenomenon often begins to develop between March and June, peaks in intensity between November and February, and exerts its strongest influence on global temperatures in the year following its emergence. The WMO stated it is stepping up efforts to mobilise information and support services to help countries anticipate and mitigate the impacts of El Niño.