WMO: Global Temperatures Approach Record Highs Until 2030

Global average temperatures are expected to remain close to record highs over the next five years, according to a UN weather agency report released on Thursday (28 May). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report confirms that the long-term warming trend continues. According to WMO forecasts, annual global average temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are projected to be 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The El Niño phenomenon – an increase in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific – could trigger a new record in 2027. The report estimates a 91% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed a 1.5 degrees Celsius rise above pre-industrial levels. There is also an 86% probability that the highest recorded temperature in 2024 will be surpassed. Global average temperatures in 2024 were 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as global warming becomes increasingly evident worldwide. According to BBC reports, London’s temperature reached 35.1 degrees Celsius on Tuesday – the hottest May day on record in the UK. The Paris Agreement sets a target to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Although exceeding this threshold in a single year does not mean the target is unattainable, the report highlights that record-breaking extreme heat events are becoming more frequent. The report also notes that warming is more intense in the Arctic region. Sea ice is expected to continue shrinking in several areas, including the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Okhotsk Sea. The report was compiled by the UK Met Office using climate forecasting data from institutions worldwide. Pre-industrial levels refer to the global average temperature between 1850 and 1900, before human activities and large-scale fossil fuel burning drastically altered the climate. Scientists use this period as a baseline to measure how much global warming has occurred. The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is critical in climate change discussions as it is the primary target under the Paris Agreement to prevent more severe impacts such as extreme heatwaves, sea-level rise, droughts, stronger storms, crop failures, and ecosystem damage.