With Eid, CORE Projects March Inflation at 3.5-3.6 Percent (yoy)

Jakarta - The Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia estimates that inflation in March 2026 will range from 0.6 percent on a monthly basis (month-to-month/mtm) and 3.5-3.6 percent on an annual basis (year-on-year/yoy). Executive Director of CORE Indonesia, Mohammad Faisal, stated when contacted by ANTARA from Jakarta on Tuesday that the annual inflation figure for March 2026 is predicted to decrease compared to the annual inflation in February 2026, which reached 4.76 percent yoy. He explained that the annual inflation in March 2026 has the potential to decline compared to the previous month due to the low-base effect from the provision of electricity tariff discounts throughout January-February 2025, which drove a surge in inflation in January-February 2026. “However, after the discount period ends in February, March will see a month-to-month inflation spike,” he said. In addition to the absence of the low-base effect, Faisal said that inflation in March 2026 will also be influenced by the momentum of Eid and the increase in prices of non-subsidised fuel (BBM). “Especially during Eid, food prices, which are a component of food prices, will experience increases, as well as transportation costs rising due to the homecoming season,” he clarified. Regarding the fuel price increase, PT Pertamina (Persero) has announced updates to non-subsidised fuel prices for certain regions effective from 1 March. In the Jabodetabek area, the price of Pertamax (RON 92) fuel has risen to Rp12,300 per litre from Rp11,800 per litre, as has Pertamax Green (RON 95), which has increased to Rp12,900 per litre from Rp12,450 per litre in February 2026. Pertamax Turbo (RON 98) has also shown an increase to Rp13,100 per litre from Rp12,700 per litre. The Pertamina Dex Series in that region has also experienced an increase. The price of Dexlite (CN 51) fuel has risen to Rp14,200 per litre from Rp13,250 per litre in February 2026. Pertamina Dex (CN 53) has also increased to Rp14,500 per litre from the previous Rp13,500 per litre. CORE Indonesia supports this policy because it is necessary to reduce the impact of the US-Israel-Iran War on the national economy, particularly among vulnerable groups, namely the poor and the lower middle class. “Policies to maintain their purchasing power are very important in this context, in addition to also needing to consider allocations for social assistance for emergency responses to (preserve purchasing power) for those groups,” added Mohammad Faisal. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to announce the March 2026 inflation report tomorrow (1/4) at 11:00.