Wiranto's candidacy versus international public opinion and

Wiranto's candidacy versus international public opinion and
International action

Jusuf Wanandi
Jakarta

U.S. Ambassador Boyce was very diplomatic when declaring that
he respected Indonesia's processes to elect a president and would
accept whatever the result was, so long as the process was fair.

Of course he should be neutral -- he cannot be seen as taking
sides or intervening. Whatever he would say could work both ways,
possibly assisting Wiranto's candidacy as a reaction to the so-
called pressure from the superpower.

But this is only one part of the reaction. The international
and national press have already reacted to Wiranto's candidacy
after the April 20 Golkar Party convention chose him. So did
civil society groups in Indonesia and abroad. More protests will
come because Wiranto has been badly tainted with alleged human
rights abuses.

Wiranto has been indicted by the UN Deputy General Prosecutor
for Serious Crimes filed with the Special Panel for Serious
Crimes at the Dili District Court in East Timor (based on UN
Security Council Resolution: 1272 of Oct. 25, 1999). This case is
still being pursued and further action can be expected in the
near future.

At the least, Wiranto had command responsibility for the
rampage of violence and looting that happened after the
referendum in 1999 where more than 1500 people were killed,
200,000 forced to leave for West Timor and 70 percent of the
province's buildings were damaged or burned down. It was also
mentioned in the indictment that the Indonesian Military (TNI)
under his command had allegedly trained the militia and supplied
them with weapons. TNI members were also involved in the rampage.

Domestically, the abuses perpetrated in May 1998, when Wiranto
was Commander in Chief of TNI, especially against the Indonesian
Chinese, has never been looked into judicially. Neither were the
cases of the killing of students in 1999 and 2000. These are the
facts and justice is still being pursued by the families of the
victims, maybe in vain because of the politics surrounding the
matter.

Here is a scenario of how all these accusations and
indictments against Wiranto could be played out in the
international arena in the future. And Muladi better watch out.

Firstly, there is what has already started -- the press has
aired human rights groups and political analysts protesting his
candidacy. These protests will certainly grow as more and more
interested groups network together. Subsequently, a few members
of a European parliament or a few U.S. congressmen or senators
will make the issue their main interest, such as happened with
Senator Feingold from Wisconsin against the TNI's abuses in East
Timor in 1991; or Senator Leahy from Vermont, against the TNI's
abuses in Dili, where the sanctions against the TNI still hold
and are hurting.

In the case of Myanmar, Senior Senator Mich McConnel from
Kentucky has single-handedly sponsored and passed heavy sanctions
against the SPDC government, which is seriously hurting its
economy. This could happen to Indonesia under Wiranto if he won
the election. It would serve to isolate Indonesia from the world,
both politically and economically and might also spread to
private sector investment or export boycotts.

If Wiranto becomes the next president of Indonesia and he goes
abroad, he will have to confront demonstrations against him where
ever he goes. At worst, the world would treat him like a
"Pinochet" or indict him, depending how East Timor's war crimes
case develops in the future. Although as head of state, Wiranto
might have immunity, the embarrassment would be great and would
hurt the Indonesian people and the state.

I am not judging Wiranto's guilt or innocence, but having
followed international affairs for over 30 years, I believe that
the reaction will be strong as Wiranto is undoubtedly tainted --
either with an indictment or without one. This embarrassment is
the last thing the country needs as it tries to overcome multiple
crises.

If these sanctions are applied on a future Wiranto presidency,
then the American ambassador or any other Western counterpart
will only have one choice: To implement them. In that case, Boyce
or his successor will become much more specific and stern in his
language.

And we have not even begun to visualize the reactions from
Indonesian civil society, the media and students if Wiranto is
elected president. But that is still a big if.

The writer is co-founder and member of the board of trustees
of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).