Will Vice President Hamzah outshine taciturn Megawati?

Indonesia's major partners, including Japan, the biggest lender and largest investor in Indonesia, is ready to cooperate with President Megawati Soekarnoputri's administration, says Takashi Shiraishi, a prominent Indonesian observer at Kyoto University. The writer of Indonesia, the Nation and Politics and Sukarno and Suharto shared his thoughts with The Jakarta Post's reporter Kornelius Purba on Wednesday during his visit to Jakarta.

Question: How would you view the reaction of the international community towards the rise of Megawati?

Answer: There are no surprises with her appointment, and other international friends, including the United States, Japan and other western countries, have been already in touch with (people likely to join) the new administration, because they knew this was coming.

Q: There are concerns here over the President's capabilities. Your comment?

A: I think it is unfair to ask about her capability when she has not really been tested yet. She has shown very strong leadership in the past few months. When the Indonesian government reduced the subsidy for fuel prices, it was clearly her decision. There's no question about her capability in making major decisions. The only thing that worries me ... is the question of character, the nature of Ibu Megawati. She tends to take more time than many people hope she would in making decisions. And she also tends to be rather taciturn, so many people who have access to her wonder what she's really thinking.

She has been silent for the last few days since she became President. People have had no idea what kind of Cabinet she is going to establish, we have no idea about the priorities she wants. I hope that she can tell us what her priorities are, and what she is going to do.

Q: How about Megawati's inner circle?

A: The political system in Indonesia has changed ... clearly now there is no longer a strong presidential system; you have a very weak presidential system with aspects of a parliamentary system contained within it.

There are three major power centers now, so the President forms only one of these, the House of Representatives (DPR) being another. Even though many may disagree with me, in fact the headquarters of the Indonesian Military (TNI), has also emerged as a power center within its own group.

Now you have three power centers, and the President simply cannot run the government, let alone survive, without support from the DPR and TNI Headquarters. It is no longer just one person as the center of power.

About Megawati's inner circle, in any political system, especially in this country, it exists. Many say this is Javanese, but this is more due to the presidential system. You have two different systems: an official Cabinet structure and a "kitchen Cabinet" -- people who have direct access to the President, anytime and at any place.

And they naturally give advice and suggestions according to the formal structure. This happened under president Soeharto, where decisions were made at Bina Graha or at his private residence on Jl. Cendana. During Abdurrahman Wahid's presidency, there were also people with direct access to him. It was interesting to see kyai walking in sandals at the palace ...

In contrast with Abdurrahman, the number of people having direct and very good access to President Megawati is very limited. And the President has a very strong adviser, namely Bambang Kesowo, who reminds me of Pak Sudharmono, Soeharto's state secretary and Bambang's former mentor.

In a sense the system, the relationship between the formal Cabinet structure with the President and the "kitchen Cabinet" reminds me of the old days of president Soeharto. So we should naturally expect that the decision-making process will be very complex. You now have the Cabinet, the DPR, the military and a "kitchen Cabinet". And all these institutions will do their best to advise and influence Ibu Megawati, and so on.

If she remains silent many will be confused; it is really important that the President explains what she thinks are her priorities in her own language, not just through a statement written by somebody else ... And naturally, depending on what kind of question she needs to address, you would expect different types of people playing a major role.

Especially in macroeconomic management, all of us hope that ... those professionals who enjoy international credibility, will be appointed as economic minister, coordinating minister for the economy, finance minister, governor of the central bank and to the chair of the National Development Planning Agency.

The market hopes the President will make the right decisions. If not, the market will react negatively, and that will be bad for the economy.

For security affairs, the relationship with the military will be the key. And I tend to believe the President has already developed a good relationship with the conservative wing of the Army, represented by Army Chief Gen. Endriartono Sutarto.

I may be wrong, but I believe that he will lead TNI. The military could well be under the control of conservative generals. The kind of reformist agenda that was very important under B.J. Habibie's and Abdurrahman's administrations will be lost.

The relationship between the military and Megawati will be stable, while at the same time the military will remain more-or- less as it is. And it is up to you to decide whether that is a good thing or not.

Q: But Megawati and also her supporters once suffered from military oppression...

A: Certainly she suffered under Soeharto, but from her perspective (the perpetrators) are individuals, rogue elements, not the military institution per se that made her and the people suffer ... Her silence on the commemoration of the July 27 tragedy (the violent takeover of her party headquarters in Jakarta in July 1996), which occurred just a few days after she became president, shows that (such issues) are not the kind of questions she wants to address.

Q: People still have a very negative perception on the military...

A: We can see that now the military has emerged at the center of power. It played a decisive role in the defeat of Abdurrahman Wahid.

It is also important to see that soldiers on the ground are not really doing what they are told to do. Sometimes the soldiers turn out to be like "machines", or (become) a "mafia" because they cannot survive. Just ask low-ranking soldiers, not the high- and middle-ranking officers, about their life.

Their life is very tough. Their monthly payment may be only enough for one week. They need to supplement their income. In the past their commanders took care of them, because there were many foundations that ran businesses or joint ventures, and that was a source of funds for the commanders to take care of their soldiers.

Many of the foundation's businesses became bankrupt during the economic crisis. So the commanders could not really take care of their soldiers ... (who became) involved in drug trafficking, or even became becak (pedicab) drivers.

Q: What's your view of the election of Hamzah Haz, chairman of an Islamic party, the United Development Party (PPP) as Vice President?

A: It is clear that Indonesia is more Islamic now compared with 50 years ago, even compared with 30 years ago. And ... the contrasting inclination (is that) one group of people, slightly more than 60 percent, tend to be "more secular." Not just Muslims, as Christians can also be secular.

There are people who worry about Islam, but there is also a quite sizable number of people who want to see the country based on Islamic values. It is quite natural to see this combination. (Because) the House is now very important as a power center, to make sure that Ibu Megawati secures a majority in the House it is quite natural for Megawati and her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) to seek support from the (Muslim- oriented) axis force.

...Even in the recent past Pak Amien Rais (the People's Consultative Assembly Speaker) supported Abdurrahman and then became his fiercest opponent. I am not surprised that currently the President enjoys the support of Amien, and her return to power is also thanks to Amien. (Hamzah's becoming vice president) will be insurance (for the support of PPP for Megawati's presidency); Amien's coalition is weaker now as (a member of the) largest faction in the group (the axis force) has now become the vice president.

I am not saying this will really happen, but I am looking with interest that, given the fact that Megawati tends to be rather quiet, it ... (may be) really difficult not only for foreigners but also for the Jakarta elite to have access to the President.

I wonder whether these people will seek access to Vice President Hamzah Haz who is more accessible, and therefore I wonder if it may turn out that the Vice President outshines the President for the simple reason that the President is very quiet and that it is may be more difficult to have access to her.

Q: In the last three years Indonesia has become a liability in the region...

A: Let me talk about the relationship between Japan and Indonesia. There is no question that it will be a big plus if Indonesia returns to a healthy state and achieves stability under this democratic presidential system. I do not think that we want to see the country returned to authoritarian rule again.

Again there are a lot of, not really worries, but rather confusion, simply because Megawati remains silent.

I understand the President is scheduled to visit the United States, Beijing and Tokyo in September. I think this is a very important opportunity; if she goes to Tokyo, she will see Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has just won the upper house elections. The Japanese private sector is really important for the Indonesian economy.

I expect the President to see the business leaders at Kaidanren (Chamber of Commerce) when she visits Tokyo. It should be a very good chance for her to explain her plans, her priorities. Otherwise if she remains quiet, and just smiles and shake hands, it will be very disappointing.

I am just underlining that if Indonesia restores stability, regains its legitimacy, it could again be at the center of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Its population is half of ASEAN and its territory is very large.

Actually, the domestic agenda is the most important. My sense is that the government needs to spell out its priorities. We also know there are broad questions, but everybody will be watching the economic team. We are deeply concerned about how it will manage the budget and the exchange rate.

The very basic requirement is price stability. If you succeed in keeping down inflation, keeping the budget totals at relatively the same (rupiah value) level, then foreign investors, and also domestic investors, can expect a return on their investment.