Will Russia Become an Islamic State by 2100?

In an article published on the Voennoye Obozreniye website, author Aleksandr Adentsov highlighted several demographic data points indicating a decline in the ethnic Russian population.

According to Adentsov, between 2002 and 2010, the number of ethnic Russians decreased by approximately 4.9 million people. Based on the 2021 census, this figure has shrunk by a further 7 million people.

Alongside the decline in ethnic Russians, the percentage of Orthodox Christians is also reported to be in decline.

Adentsov assesses that Russia is facing a serious civilisation crisis. This crisis, he argues, does not only concern economic issues but also touches upon the continued existence of the nation and the state.

He explained that based on 2020 population data regarding religious affiliation, the number of Muslims in Russia reached 14.5 million, or approximately 10 per cent of the total population. By 2024, this number is expected to increase to around 20 million, or 13.6 per cent. Consequently, Russia has entered the list of the 20 countries with the largest Muslim populations in the world for the first time.

According to Adentsov, if these conditions do not change, the ethnic Russian population will shrink to around 90 million by 2040. Meanwhile, their proportion is expected to drop to as low as 50 per cent by 2060.

On the other hand, the Muslim population in the Caucasus region is reported to be experiencing high population growth.