Will RP witness People Power II?

Will RP witness People Power II?

By Malou Mangahas

MANILA (Reuters): A campaign to drive Philippine President Joseph Estrada out of office is reminiscent of the movement which ended Ferdinand Marcos' dictatorship but is still far from the intensity of the 1986 revolution.

Fourteen years after driving Marcos out of office, many Filipinos are once more marching in the streets with yellow shirts of protest on, shredding telephone books into confetti and bringing their rosaries to pray during rallies.

On one side is Estrada and a large chunk of the country's impoverished masses who he says still support him. On the other are churchmen, businessmen and politicians, much of the cast which took to the streets in 1986, urging him to resign over a gambling pay-offs scandal.

Analysts say however the current scenario is not yet the 1986 "people power" revolt being played out again, although some say it could come to that.

"Let us wait for a little while more," said political science professor Felipe Miranda.

An opinion survey last month by pollster Asia Pulse, which Miranda runs, showed 53 percent of Manila residents want Estrada to stay, 31 percent want him to go and 16 percent are undecided.

Estrada denies accusations he has taken 414 million pesos (US$8.7 million) in gambling kickbacks and has vowed to fight an impeachment move against him in Congress.

As if running an election campaign, the former movie actor has taken the battle to Manila's shantytowns, distributing land titles to the poor and accusing the country's elite of ganging up on him.

"Some elements present in 1986 do not exist," Miranda said.

Others have pointed out that Estrada's regime is far from the repressive rule of Marcos and the military is not in ferment. And the protests have not yet lit a spark among the masses.

"Across income groups, most people worry about what trouble could erupt in the streets ... the poor can lose their jobs and lives, and the rich their properties," Miranda said.

During the popular uprising against Marcos, one woman welded the nation against the dictatorship: Corazon Aquino, whose husband was assassinated by Marcos' soldiers.

Now Aquino has urged Estrada to resign.

"If the president will not resign, public protests must continue to impress upon him the wisdom of that course," she said in a statement on Tuesday.

Vice President and opposition leader Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, next in line of succession if Estrada falls, has emerged as the focal point of the anti-Estrada campaign after resigning her post as social welfare secretary in the cabinet. But she still does not seem to have the high moral authority that Aquino does.

And while the old symbols of protest are there -- yellow shirts, confetti and rosaries -- the number of those marching still pales compared with the legions who marched against Marcos.

There has also been little anger -- unlike in the fight against Marcos when the country was in tumult.

"The difference is no one has been killed," said Paul Aquino, brother of the assassinated opposition leader Benigno Aquino whose murder in 1983 sparked the massive social unrest which catapulted his widow to the presidency three years later.

Businessman Paul Dominguez, who helped organize anti-Marcos rallies, said the 1986 revolt was a result of a three-year mobilization -- "a long deepening of the issues."

The anti-Estrada protest is only weeks old and has played "almost like a soap opera", Dominguez said.

But there are signs the tempo is building.

At the rallies, employees at Makati's high-rise office buildings showered thousands of protesters with confetti in a clear attempt to rekindle memories of the 1986 uprising.

Another key figure of the 1986 revolt, Cardinal Jaime Sin, has called for a mass prayer rally on Nov. 4 to push for Estrada's removal. Some analysts have said it could be the turning point in the campaign if enough protesters fill the streets.

Campuses are also in revolt.

Faculty and students at two prestigious institutions, state- run University of the Philippines and Jesuit-run Ateneo de Manila University, have issued statements urging alumni who are members of Estrada's cabinet to leave the government.

So far, Estrada is defending himself strictly by the book.

Loyalist lawmakers in Congress who have the numbers to quell any impeachment move are passing around resolutions standing by him. Mayors have bussed in people for rallies in support of him.

Even movie stars have joined the fray, urging their former colleague "to hang on and stand firm."

"The other side represents the elite," village headman and Estrada supporter Felix Valenzuela said.

"We are more numerous because there are more poor people in our country."