Will Global Oil Prices Fall Under Donald Trump's Administration?

Global oil prices breached above USD 100 per barrel on Monday, 9 March 2026. Brent crude futures temporarily reached USD 118 per barrel, the highest level in four years, amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump stated on his TruthSocial platform that global oil prices would decline in the short term once Iranian nuclear threats subsided. Trump urged the American public not to worry about rising oil prices amid escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The escalation stemmed from a late February 2026 attack by the United States and its ally Israel on Iran, which resulted in civilian casualties after targeting a girls’ school. The operation also resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In response, Iran attacked several American military facilities in the Middle East and Israeli territory. Iran subsequently threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global trade and oil distribution corridor. The Middle Eastern tensions have prompted widespread concern among nations about a potential energy crisis due to disruptions in world oil supply.

Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia assured that subsidised fuel prices for Pertalite would remain stable despite global oil prices reaching USD 118 per barrel. A Bank Indonesia consumer survey conducted in February 2026 indicated that public confidence in Indonesia’s economic conditions remained strong despite concerns over rising global oil prices.