Why Q1 2026 Becomes the "Breath" of Indonesia's Economic Growth in 2026?

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Indonesia’s economic growth figure for the first quarter of 2026 plays a crucial role as the foundation for achieving the national economic target throughout the year. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto projects that economic growth could reach 5.5 per cent. This target is higher than the annual target estimate presented in the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN), which stands at 5.4 per cent. The economic growth figure for Q1 2026 is important because it will determine the direction of Indonesia’s economic resilience amid lingering global uncertainties, ranging from commodity price volatility to geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) structure is still dominated by household consumption, contributing 54 to 55 per cent. In the first three months of 2026, the calendar features closely spaced religious holidays, namely Chinese New Year, Nyepi, and Eid al-Fitr 1447 H, all within one quarter. Consumption activities during this period, especially with Eid al-Fitr, are believed to have a multiplier effect on sectors such as retail, transportation, and services. Consumer optimism is also driven by the receipt of Holiday Allowances (THR) and Holiday Bonuses (BHR) by workers. The government is also optimistic that the high circulation of money at the beginning of the year will provide liquidity cushioning for the real sector. Q1 2026 will also be marked by geopolitical tensions involving the United States (US), Israel, and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict directly affects energy prices and the global supply chain, which is also felt by Indonesia. Therefore, a solid economic growth figure for Q1 2026 will serve as evidence that Indonesia is resilient amid shocks.