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Why Is It Still Raining in the Dry Season? BMKG Explains

| Source: DETIK Translated from Indonesian | Agriculture
Why Is It Still Raining in the Dry Season? BMKG Explains
Image: DETIK

Parts of Indonesia have already entered the dry season. This year, the dry season is predicted to be drier and longer than usual.

So, why is it still raining during the dry season? Quoting from the Instagram post of the @infobmkg account, BMKG explains that April is still in the transitional phase. In fact, as of early April 2026, only 7.8% of Indonesia’s regions have entered the dry season, while the rest are still in the rainy season. Therefore, it is very normal for some areas to still experience frequent rain.

The dry season arrives gradually from south to north. The dry season is brought by the Australian monsoon winds moving from south to north of Indonesia. Here is the predicted schedule.

  • April-May:

  • NTT

  • NTB

  • Bali

  • East Java

  • Central Java

  • June:

  • Most of Sumatra

  • July:

  • Parts of Kalimantan and Sulawesi

Rain During the Dry Season: A Normal Occurrence

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) states that rain during the dry season is not unusual but normal. We are currently still in the transitional phase, so not all regions have entered the dry season.

The dry season does not mean there is no rain at all. Rain can still occur, but it is less frequent.

The boundary for the dry season is when rainfall is less than 50 mm per 10 days (one decade) and continues for three consecutive decades. Thus, there is still a chance of rain during the dry season.

Is the 2026 Dry Season the Worst in 30 Years?

BMKG confirms that this news is not true. The 2026 dry season is indeed predicted to be drier than usual compared to the normal climate average. However, it does not mean this is the most severe dry season in the last 30 years.

Prediction of the 2026 Dry Season Peak: August

Based on the “Prediction of the Dry Season in Indonesia for 2026” released by BMKG, most regions of Indonesia are predicted to experience the dry season peak in August 2026. Here are other things to know regarding the 2026 dry season prediction in Indonesia.

  • Most regions of Indonesia are predicted to enter the dry season during the April period (114 ZOM; 16.3%), May (184 ZOM; 26.3%), and June 2026 (163 ZOM; 23.3%), starting from the Nusa Tenggara region and then gradually to other regions of Indonesia.

  • The onset of the dry season in most regions of Indonesia is predicted to arrive earlier or advanced (325 ZOM; 46.5%) and the same as normal (173 ZOM; 23.7%).

  • Rainfall accumulation during the dry season period in most of Indonesia (451 ZOM; 64.5%) is predicted to be in the below normal category or drier than usual.

  • Most regions of Indonesia (429 ZOM; 61.4%) are predicted to experience the dry season peak in August 2026.

  • The dry season peak in Indonesia is mostly predicted to occur earlier or advanced (410 ZOM; 58.7%) and the same as normal (142 ZOM; 20.3%).

  • Most regions of Indonesia (400 ZOM; 57.2%) are predicted to experience a dry season that is longer than normal.

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