Why is Ahmadinejad a mystery in the US-Iran conflict?

It is important to note that this despised regime [Israel] is on the path to destruction. By God’s will, this regime will collapse and no factor can save it. This regime has reached the end of its journey and will soon be erased from the geographical map.

For years, such statements have made former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad one of the world’s most recognised anti-Israel figures.

He denied the Holocaust, compared Israel to a ‘cancerous tumour’, and defended Iran’s nuclear programme despite sanctions – a stance that Israeli officials often cite when explaining why they view Iran as a genuine threat.

Ahmadinejad returned to the spotlight after The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel had ‘post-war plans’ involving the former leader.

The plans reportedly considered the option of Ahmadinejad breaking away from Iran’s security structure and emerging as a future Iranian leader.

However, according to The New York Times report, the plan failed when an attempt to free Ahmadinejad from house arrest at the start of the war instead injured him.

Several Israeli officials and analysts openly stated that Ahmadinejad, with his harsh rhetoric and Holocaust denial, was actually beneficial to Israel.

Ahmadinejad and his allies have not responded to the claims, and his current whereabouts remain unknown.

The news report was met with scepticism by many US and Israeli analysts, who questioned why the two nations would consider collaborating with someone long known for anti-Israel rhetoric.

This contradiction has also prompted some to reassess Ahmadinejad’s image.

A useful enemy for Israel?

To understand this issue, we must revisit the time when Ahmadinejad first rose to power in Iranian politics.

In 2003, he was elected mayor of Tehran despite being relatively unknown in politics.

In 2005, he became president with strong backing from the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

During his campaign, he used slogans of justice, simplicity, and anti-corruption. He quickly became a global figure not for domestic policies, but for his statements on Israel, the US, and the Holocaust.

In October 2005, at the ‘World Without Zionism’ conference in Tehran, Ahmadinejad stated, ‘a world without America and Zionism is achievable.’

Around a year later, the controversial International Conference to Review the Global Vision of the Holocaust was held in Tehran. The event, attended by prominent Holocaust deniers, drew international condemnation.

Years later, several Israeli officials and analysts openly stated that Ahmadinejad was actually beneficial to Israel.

In 2008, former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy called Ahmadinejad ‘Iran’s greatest gift to Israel’, arguing that Ahmadinejad’s statements made the world take the Iranian threat more seriously.

Ahmadinejad’s supporters rejected this, claiming he pursued aggressive and ideological policies opposing Israel and Western nations.

Image transformation

After completing his term in 2013, Ahmadinejad increasingly clashed with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and elements within Iran’s security structure, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

He was subsequently barred multiple times by Iran’s Guardian Council from running in presidential elections.

In response to The New York Times report, Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran and Shia Axis programme at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, explained that Ahmadinejad often took contradictory and unpredictable stances.

‘Ahmadinejad’s presidency was a mix of populism and opportunism,’ he wrote.

Following a divisive and harsh presidency, Ahmadinejad shifted his approach.

In recent years, on social media, Ahmadinejad has also reshaped his international image.

He has posted in English, congratulated the University of Michigan football team, and quoted American rapper Tupac Shakur.

Ahmadinejad even praised US President Donald Trump, calling him ‘a fighter against political corruption in America’.

However, despite Zimmt acknowledging these efforts to create a more moderate image within Iran and for Western audiences, he stated Ahmadinejad never had the support to seize power in a country of over 90 million people.

US experts sceptical

Three US experts who spoke to BBC Persian also doubted the report of a ‘serious operational plan’ to restore Ahmadinejad to power in Iran.

Max Abrahms, a politics professor at Northeastern University and counter-terrorism researcher, said the report should be treated with ‘very high scepticism’ given the high levels of misinformation surrounding the conflict.

He assessed it unlikely Israel would welcome Ahmadinejad’s return, given his Holocaust denial and role in advancing Iran’s nuclear programme. As for Trump, he said Ahmadinejad did not fit the narrative of…