Why Do Rumours of Kim Jong Un’s Death Keep Emerging?

North Korean state media released photographs of Kim Jong Un shortly after rumours of his death began circulating online (KCNA).

Kim Jong Un has appeared in North Korean state media looking in apparently good health, despite rumours that he had died of a brain haemorrhage.

Photographs published by the state newspaper Rodong Sinmun showed the 42-year-old dictator visiting a clothing and footwear exhibition with his daughter.

The images appeared hours after a China-born dissident living in the United States claimed, without providing evidence, that Kim had been taken to a hospital in Beijing in a coma and subsequently died.

For North Korea watchers, rumours of this kind have become almost routine.

In one of the world’s most secretive countries, facts are often difficult to verify, creating fertile ground for speculation.

The latest claim came from Wanjun Xie, who describes himself as the chairman of the China Democracy Party, a group banned by the Chinese authorities.

He has previously circulated unverified claims, including speculation about the death of Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Xie alleged that Kim had suffered a severe brain haemorrhage and was transferred to Beijing because North Korea lacked adequate medical facilities to treat him.

He claimed that Kim later died and that his body was secretly returned to North Korea while the regime sought to conceal his death.

But the photographs tell a different story.

Kim was seen inspecting exhibition stands, accompanied by Kim Ju Ae and the group of officials who usually attend him.

It is impossible to know exactly when the photographs were taken, but there are other reasons to doubt the claim.

A sudden deterioration in Kim’s health would probably produce signs beyond North Korea’s borders.

China would likely tighten security along its border in anticipation of possible instability or a wave of refugees.

There might also be increased activity around North Korean diplomatic missions.

North Korean defectors in South Korea often gather information through informal networks in China’s border region. But none of these indications has been observed.

Meanwhile, South Korean intelligence officials told the Yonhap news agency that they had received no information supporting the report.

Kim Ju Ae made her first public appearance in 2022. In this photograph, she and her father attend a dinner marking the 75th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army in February 2023 (Reuters).

The latest rumour also recalls a series of similar reports that proved false.

In 2020, a prominent North Korean defector said he was “99% certain” Kim had died after undergoing cardiovascular surgery.

Kim reappeared in public shortly afterwards, disproving the claim.

So why do such rumours keep emerging?

One reason is the question of succession.

North Korea has been ruled by the Kim family for three generations.

But what happens after Kim Jong Un is less clear than the succession process in previous generations.

Kim Il Sung spent decades preparing his son, Kim Jong Il, to take power.

When Kim Il Sung died in 1994, the succession plan was well established. The transition to Kim Jong Il was relatively smooth.

Kim Jong Un’s rise to power was faster and more uncertain.

After Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke in 2008, his youngest son was rapidly promoted to a series of senior positions.

By the time his father died in 2011, Kim Jong Un had been publicly introduced as the next leader.

Even so, he spent years consolidating his power by removing rivals and eliminating those considered threats.

South Korea’s intelligence agency now believes he may be preparing his daughter to succeed him.

Kim’s daughter has appeared increasingly often at major events and high-profile military displays.

However, Kim Ju Ae is thought to be only about 13.

North Korea has never been led by a woman, and she has not been officially designated as heir.

Her young age could also leave her vulnerable in a struggle for power if a leadership transition took place.

All this uncertainty helps explain why reports about Kim Jong Un’s health attract so much attention.

South Korea’s intelligence agency believes Kim may be preparing his daughter to succeed him (KCNA).

A second reason is that the rumours are not entirely implausible.

Kim is known to be overweight and a heavy smoker.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service has repeatedly warned that his lifestyle puts him at greater risk of cardiovascular disease.

Heart disease and strokes are also known to run in the Kim family.

If something happened to Kim, the consequences would be significant for neighbouring countries and the wider international community.

A sudden leadership crisis could raise difficult questions about who controlled North Korea’s nuclear weapons and whether political instability might follow.

Could a struggle for power prompt hardliners to act more aggressively?

Could unrest trigger a refugee crisis along the Chinese border?

Such questions concern not only Beijing and Seoul but also Washington, which has around 28,000 military personnel stationed in South Korea.

Intelligence agencies therefore monitor Kim Jong Un closely so they can prepare for any eventuality.

A secretive country and an easy target for fake news

But North Korea’s continued status as one of the world’s most secretive countries also makes it an easy target for false reports.

Only a small number of people have regular access to its leader.

Even intelligence agencies struggle to obtain reliable information, and reports are often accompanied by caveats that they are unverified or considered highly likely rather than established fact.

The North Korean regime itself is also often suspected of deliberately sowing confusion by leaking misleading information to obscure what is really happening inside the country.

It is therefore difficult to believe that Wanjun Xie suddenly obtained information of such importance when the same information escaped the notice of those tasked with monitoring the situation.

He may simply be seeking attention. Or he may want to embarrass Beijing by highlighting the relationship between China and Pyongyang, although the closeness of the two countries has long been widely known.

Whatever his motives, Xie is not the first person to exploit the uncertainty surrounding North Korea’s leadership.