Who's foiling the polls?

The question on everybody's mind today is whether the general election will take place as scheduled on June 7. Recent events have given people valid reason to worry that the polls, which all agree are crucial to put our crisis-ridden country back on its feet, will be postponed or even canceled.

Just about every thing that has gone wrong with this country in recent months is viewed as having the potential to foil the elections. There is the lukewarm public response to the current voter registration drive and the slow progress made by the General Elections Commission (KPU) in drawing up the electoral rules. There is the students' call to boycott the elections and the inability of some political parties to control their supporters' enthusiasm during street rallies. And there is the spate of violence in Ambon, West Kalimantan, East Timor and Aceh, and the as yet unexplained bomb threats which have rattled Jakarta.

Last but not least, the attitude of President B.J. Habibie and Golkar, and their maneuvers ahead of the elections, including an early start to their campaigning and defying the KPU ban on ministers' campaigning, are not helping to create the conducive atmosphere needed for truly democratic polls.

Yet, there is a growing sense of urgency that it should take place no matter what, or the nation faces unimaginable consequences, including an inexorable plunge into total anarchy. This country is becoming more and more difficult to govern, not so much because of the increasing ethnic and communal conflicts, but more because of the administration's inability to rule. President B.J. Habibie and his administration, which have ruled this country for 11 months with weak constitutional legitimacy, are fast losing their credibility. A new government, with more legitimacy and popular support, is what this country desperately needs to restore people's confidence in the government.

Indonesia's economic recovery, upon which the prosperity of our people depends, also hinges on the elections and its result. Although the economy has stopped sliding, the country has been starved of new investment and will continue to be until investor confidence is restored. New jobs will only be created, and people's income increase, when we have new investment, which in turn awaits the establishment of a new government.

Elections are only the first step in the process of establishing a legitimate and credible government. There is the presidential election by the People's Consultative Assembly in November, and the subsequent establishment of a new Cabinet. It is wrong to assume that things will get better immediately after June 7. Indonesia still has to go through several steps -- difficult ones given the likelihood of a coalition government -- before it has a credible administration in place. But the holding of the elections is the first and most crucial step to make.

Given the acknowledged importance of the elections for this country, one wonders why anyone would want to disrupt the process and prevent the establishment of a new government. Going by motive alone, the only people to benefit would be those in power. Everybody else stands to lose, but the status quo forces will hang onto power that much longer.

The real threat to the elections does not come from students who are calling for a boycott since they are conducting their protests peacefully. Nor is it from the public failing to register to vote; they are simply exercising their right not to register, for whatever reasons. It is not derived from the KPU and the political parties either since they, too, have a stake in making sure that the elections take place. Nor is a real threat posed by the outbreaks of violence or the bomb threats.

The real threat is the inability of the government, including the military, to contain the violence, their inability to give credible explanations about these incidents and their failure to bring the perpetrators to justice. The mounting backlog of unexplained or unsolved cases in turn raises doubts not only about the government's ability, but also its political will.

Since the status quo forces are the only ones who stand to benefit from a delay or cancellation of the general election, then any search for the real culprits out to thwart the polls should probably begin among their ranks.