Who's foiling the polls?

Who's foiling the polls?

The question on everybody's mind today is whether the general
election will take place as scheduled on June 7. Recent events
have given people valid reason to worry that the polls, which all
agree are crucial to put our crisis-ridden country back on its
feet, will be postponed or even canceled.

Just about every thing that has gone wrong with this country
in recent months is viewed as having the potential to foil the
elections. There is the lukewarm public response to the current
voter registration drive and the slow progress made by the
General Elections Commission (KPU) in drawing up the electoral
rules. There is the students' call to boycott the elections and
the inability of some political parties to control their
supporters' enthusiasm during street rallies. And there is the
spate of violence in Ambon, West Kalimantan, East Timor and Aceh,
and the as yet unexplained bomb threats which have rattled
Jakarta.

Last but not least, the attitude of President B.J. Habibie and
Golkar, and their maneuvers ahead of the elections, including an
early start to their campaigning and defying the KPU ban on
ministers' campaigning, are not helping to create the conducive
atmosphere needed for truly democratic polls.

Yet, there is a growing sense of urgency that it should take
place no matter what, or the nation faces unimaginable
consequences, including an inexorable plunge into total anarchy.
This country is becoming more and more difficult to govern, not
so much because of the increasing ethnic and communal conflicts,
but more because of the administration's inability to rule.
President B.J. Habibie and his administration, which have ruled
this country for 11 months with weak constitutional legitimacy,
are fast losing their credibility. A new government, with more
legitimacy and popular support, is what this country desperately
needs to restore people's confidence in the government.

Indonesia's economic recovery, upon which the prosperity of
our people depends, also hinges on the elections and its result.
Although the economy has stopped sliding, the country has been
starved of new investment and will continue to be until investor
confidence is restored. New jobs will only be created, and
people's income increase, when we have new investment, which in
turn awaits the establishment of a new government.

Elections are only the first step in the process of
establishing a legitimate and credible government. There is the
presidential election by the People's Consultative Assembly in
November, and the subsequent establishment of a new Cabinet. It
is wrong to assume that things will get better immediately after
June 7. Indonesia still has to go through several steps --
difficult ones given the likelihood of a coalition government --
before it has a credible administration in place. But the holding
of the elections is the first and most crucial step to make.

Given the acknowledged importance of the elections for this
country, one wonders why anyone would want to disrupt the process
and prevent the establishment of a new government. Going by
motive alone, the only people to benefit would be those in power.
Everybody else stands to lose, but the status quo forces will
hang onto power that much longer.

The real threat to the elections does not come from students
who are calling for a boycott since they are conducting their
protests peacefully. Nor is it from the public failing to
register to vote; they are simply exercising their right not to
register, for whatever reasons. It is not derived from the KPU
and the political parties either since they, too, have a stake in
making sure that the elections take place. Nor is a real threat
posed by the outbreaks of violence or the bomb threats.

The real threat is the inability of the government, including
the military, to contain the violence, their inability to give
credible explanations about these incidents and their failure to
bring the perpetrators to justice. The mounting backlog of
unexplained or unsolved cases in turn raises doubts not only
about the government's ability, but also its political will.

Since the status quo forces are the only ones who stand to
benefit from a delay or cancellation of the general election,
then any search for the real culprits out to thwart the polls
should probably begin among their ranks.