Who's afraid of Mega?
Who's afraid of Mega?
It is beyond doubt that President Soeharto will be re-elected
in the coming presidential election if he agrees to run for
another term. At the moment, nobody is strong enough to challenge
him. The three pillars of the state, namely the Armed Forces, the
bureaucracy and the business community, are all behind him.
But it is interesting to note that despite the heavy odds --
similar to what has happened in the past when an election draws
near -- the names of other possible presidential candidates have
started to surface.
In the past, names such as M. Jusuf, Ali Sadikin, Rudini and
other lesser-known individuals, such as Berar Fathia, have been
proposed. But everybody knew that their nomination by dissident
groups, prior to the People's Consultative Council (MPR) session,
served only to protest the single candidacy system. In the end,
during the official presidential election, no faction within the
MPR ever came up with a name other than Soeharto.
This time, the possible nomination of Megawati Soekarnoputri,
the head of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) and eldest
daughter of the late president Sukarno, has made a bigger splash.
For weeks a public debate has been going on about the chances and
possible merits of Megawati's participation in the 1998
presidential race.
The interesting fact is that although everybody knows that
Megawati has practically no chance of competing with President
Soeharto, some people are trying to defy the odds by distributing
and filing candidacy forms to rally support for her as
presidential candidate.
Is this just another protest nomination? Is this a political
ploy to wrest more votes in the coming election? Or is there real
substance to this campaign?
The first thing to note is that the campaign seems to be ill-
prepared and, therefore, we believe that Megawati is not behind
the nomination. For surely, even without the issue of candidacy,
Megawati has her hands full at the moment with the internal rifts
in her party. Daring to nominate herself as presidential
candidate would seem likely to speed her downfall.
As for the origin of the issue, there are conflicting reports
as to when and where the idea to nominate Megawati was first
conceived. Some claim it originated in Central Java, a PDI
stronghold for decades. But the executive board of PDI has thus
far denied any knowledge of the nomination. And Megawati herself
has refused to comment on the matter, adding another veil to
shroud the mystery.
Yet, at least three legislators from the PDI faction in the
House of Representatives (DPR) have openly declared their support
for Megawati's candidacy.
Speculation has gone on a rampage concerning the possible
motives behind Megawati's nomination. Some say it is just a ploy
by Megawati's opponents to "trap" her into making mistakes. Some
people believe the nomination could infuriate the powers that be,
thus leading to the collapse of her party leadership, which
certain government officials have tried to undermine for some
time.
Others say it is part of the PDI's strategy to take a tough
stance against the government in order to win votes from the
younger generation. But still others say the idea originating
from activists in Central Java has caught the imagination of some
PDI leaders, who have become excited at the prospect of seeing
the daughter of Indonesia's first president challenge his
successor. And that, presumably, is why some PDI leaders have
decided to test the water.
Whatever the truth is, this issue is a reflection of the fact
that certain norms and values in society have changed. To some
people, particularly among the younger generation, to challenge
an undefeatable incumbent is perhaps no longer a sin. The fact
that somebody is "crazy" enough to defy the established norms and
act against all odds might even be considered a plus point and,
therefore, a milestone of progress in the nation's journey
towards democracy.
Another interesting point is that although most government
officials tend to publicly belittle Megawati's chances, keen
observers might detect a wisp of concern in their statements. In
the past, officials have usually treated any challenge to
President Soeharto as a mere nuisance. But this time some
officials seem to be upset.
Perhaps it is because the PDI is unpredictable and thus they
believe that there is always the possibility, small as it may be,
that the party might pull something off. And if this were to
happen, in those officials' views, President Soeharto's victory
might not be 100 percent perfect.
The only thing for certain is that the coming days are bound
to be hard for Megawati and the PDI.