Who's afraid of Mega?

Who's afraid of Mega?

It is beyond doubt that President Soeharto will be re-elected in the coming presidential election if he agrees to run for another term. At the moment, nobody is strong enough to challenge him. The three pillars of the state, namely the Armed Forces, the bureaucracy and the business community, are all behind him.

But it is interesting to note that despite the heavy odds -- similar to what has happened in the past when an election draws near -- the names of other possible presidential candidates have started to surface.

In the past, names such as M. Jusuf, Ali Sadikin, Rudini and other lesser-known individuals, such as Berar Fathia, have been proposed. But everybody knew that their nomination by dissident groups, prior to the People's Consultative Council (MPR) session, served only to protest the single candidacy system. In the end, during the official presidential election, no faction within the MPR ever came up with a name other than Soeharto.

This time, the possible nomination of Megawati Soekarnoputri, the head of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) and eldest daughter of the late president Sukarno, has made a bigger splash. For weeks a public debate has been going on about the chances and possible merits of Megawati's participation in the 1998 presidential race.

The interesting fact is that although everybody knows that Megawati has practically no chance of competing with President Soeharto, some people are trying to defy the odds by distributing and filing candidacy forms to rally support for her as presidential candidate.

Is this just another protest nomination? Is this a political ploy to wrest more votes in the coming election? Or is there real substance to this campaign?

The first thing to note is that the campaign seems to be ill- prepared and, therefore, we believe that Megawati is not behind the nomination. For surely, even without the issue of candidacy, Megawati has her hands full at the moment with the internal rifts in her party. Daring to nominate herself as presidential candidate would seem likely to speed her downfall.

As for the origin of the issue, there are conflicting reports as to when and where the idea to nominate Megawati was first conceived. Some claim it originated in Central Java, a PDI stronghold for decades. But the executive board of PDI has thus far denied any knowledge of the nomination. And Megawati herself has refused to comment on the matter, adding another veil to shroud the mystery.

Yet, at least three legislators from the PDI faction in the House of Representatives (DPR) have openly declared their support for Megawati's candidacy.

Speculation has gone on a rampage concerning the possible motives behind Megawati's nomination. Some say it is just a ploy by Megawati's opponents to "trap" her into making mistakes. Some people believe the nomination could infuriate the powers that be, thus leading to the collapse of her party leadership, which certain government officials have tried to undermine for some time.

Others say it is part of the PDI's strategy to take a tough stance against the government in order to win votes from the younger generation. But still others say the idea originating from activists in Central Java has caught the imagination of some PDI leaders, who have become excited at the prospect of seeing the daughter of Indonesia's first president challenge his successor. And that, presumably, is why some PDI leaders have decided to test the water.

Whatever the truth is, this issue is a reflection of the fact that certain norms and values in society have changed. To some people, particularly among the younger generation, to challenge an undefeatable incumbent is perhaps no longer a sin. The fact that somebody is "crazy" enough to defy the established norms and act against all odds might even be considered a plus point and, therefore, a milestone of progress in the nation's journey towards democracy.

Another interesting point is that although most government officials tend to publicly belittle Megawati's chances, keen observers might detect a wisp of concern in their statements. In the past, officials have usually treated any challenge to President Soeharto as a mere nuisance. But this time some officials seem to be upset.

Perhaps it is because the PDI is unpredictable and thus they believe that there is always the possibility, small as it may be, that the party might pull something off. And if this were to happen, in those officials' views, President Soeharto's victory might not be 100 percent perfect.

The only thing for certain is that the coming days are bound to be hard for Megawati and the PDI.