'Whomever becomes president, they will need the TNI'

'Whomever becomes president, they will need the TNI'

Jun Honna, the author of the book Military Politics and
Democratization in Indonesia (2003), and an associate professor
at Ritsumeiken University in Japan, has been in Indonesia for
about one year to observe the elections here. The political
scientist shared his observations with The Jakarta Post's
Kornelius Purba.

Question: There is an apparent rivalry between the Indonesian
Police (Polri) and the Indonesian Military (TNI) to have an
influence on the presidential election. Why has this occurred?

Answer: I think the support by the police for incumbent
President Megawati Soekarnoputri is very institutional. Police
tend to believe that if Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY)
becomes president, the police would be put under the Ministry of
Home Affairs, while now they are under direct presidential
control. The police fear that if Megawati fails, they will face
great difficulty. And also the Megawati government has provided
them with a lot of money. They bought motorcycles, cars and other
things. Most police officers generally think that their condition
has been much better during Megawati's administration. That is
why the police tend to support her. They fear the military will
come back (to power) again if Susilo wins. They will lose their
power. Of course, officially they do not say that, they say they
are neutral.

How about the TNI?

I don't think there is an institutional instruction from the
Army chief or from the TNI commander to support SBY. There are a
lot of TNI families that tend to believe that someone from the
TNI should be the next president. That's why in many military
housing complexes, there are many ballot stations which support
SBY. However, if you see in other areas, Megawati also received a
lot of support from the TNI families. So, I don't think there is
an instruction from the top.

Why?

Whoever becomes president, he or she needs to rely on the TNI
in conducting military policy and in managing national stability.
The TNI is very confident that whomever will become the next
president, that person will need to rely on the TNI, so they
don't need to risk siding with one or the other. They have a very
strong bargaining position.

In terms of government, what are the differences between
Susilo and Megawati?

If Susilo becomes president there is hope that his leadership
can provide a lot of results, because he promised to the public
that if elected he would bring about a lot of changes. So there
are a lot of expectations on him. He has a very good vision and
he understands what is demanded by the international community. I
think his vision is very good. However, there is some question as
to whether he will be able to surround himself with people
equally as good as him, when he is elected president

If you look at the people around his "success team" there are
some questions about them, for instance, retired military
officers. I don't believe they are reformists. Another question
is, even if SBY himself has a good vision, will he be able to
resist those within his own circle. Although he has strong
leadership skills and seems intent on reforms, he'll have to deal
with resistance from within his own circle of advisers.

Another concern is that because he is only supported by
relatively small parties, like the Prosperous Justice Party
(PKS), the Crescent Star PBB and his own Democratic Party. Many
people are concerned that he will face resistance in the House of
Representatives, which looks to be controlled by the new
Nationhood Coalition (dominated by Golkar, PDI-P and PPP).
Whether his government will be better or not, totally depends on
his leadership.

Do you think Megawati can change?

If she wins the election, of course there is a possibility
that she will carry out more reforms. But she is also surrounded
by political party elites, and her next government would also be
comprised after much horse-trading. I don't think that situation
makes her able to have strong leadership. So without strong
leadership, we can not expect drastic reforms, which are urgently
required for economic recovery

From a foreign perspective, what are the differences between
Megawati and Susilo?

Basically there is no difference for foreigners, including for
foreign investors. The international community always demands
that Indonesia establish a good investment climate, the
eradication of corruption and judicial reforms. So the
establishment of clean governance is a crucial issue for foreign
countries. So, whoever becomes president, their demands would be
the same. However, I am not quite sure, but I see the tendency
that they (majority of foreigners) prefer SBY because he can
communicate with the international community.

How about the Islam factor in the elections?

Islam, as a social value is penetrating Indonesia, and that
tendency will continue. But Islam as a political tool in the
formal institutions like the House or the president, I don't
think the influence is growing stronger. In terms of formal
politics, there will be no big change in the future. But the
question is whether a Islam outside of this formal structure is
growing, like the radicalization of some Islamic groups. As long
as the economic condition of Indonesia fails to recover, more
poor people will be motivated by radical values. The core of the
problem is not radicalism, not the religion itself, but more the
economic condition of this country.

What is your predicting about the direction of Indonesian
democracy in the next five years?

I think the presidential election, this time, is a good
experiment to consolidate democracy. Political leadership is
based on the aspirations of people, and that will be a
breakthrough to consolidate the democratic processes in this
country. We will also witness the direct elections of regents,
mayors and governors. This also promotes democratic values and
democratic political orientation in the regions. That is one of
the hopes. But on the other hand, if you look at the actual
situation in the villages, there is some question about the
direct elections, because there is a concern that the candidates
will try to mobilize voters based on religious and ethnic lines.