Who Will Win Israel’s Election, Netanyahu or Eisenkot? An Analyst’s View

AMMAN — Jordanian political analyst Arib al-Rantawi says Gadi Eisenkot has a chance of forming an Israeli minority government with support from Arab parties.

Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is expected to find it difficult to retain power after his coalition lost a significant number of seats in the election.

In an analysis of the preliminary Israeli election results carried by Al Jazeera on Wednesday (28 October 2026), al-Rantawi, who is also director of the Al-Quds Centre for Political Studies, said Netanyahu’s Likud party had won 24–25 seats, putting it at the top of the field.

However, Netanyahu’s coalition is expected to secure only about 50 seats, 18 fewer than it held in the previous Knesset.

By contrast, the Yashar party led by Eisenkot is projected to win 52–53 seats. Al-Rantawi said this would give Eisenkot an opportunity to form a minority government.

That would depend on his ability to secure support from Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List and obtain a pledge of support from the Joint List outside the government.

“In short, Netanyahu currently has 50 seats, facing 70 members of parliament who oppose him, his government and its policies, despite coming from different political backgrounds,” al-Rantawi wrote in his analysis.

Eisenkot’s path to forming a government is not entirely smooth, however. He will have to overcome differences and divisions among his allies, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman.

Another challenge will be addressing opposition, both within and outside the government, to relying on Arab votes.

Arab votes make history

Al-Rantawi identified five significant developments shaping this Israeli election. One was high voter turnout, which he said had not been seen since the election of 31 December 1973, about two months after the outbreak of the October 1973 War.