Who will be candidate of the Islamic camp in 2004?

Muhammad Qodari, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta, Qodari@csis.or.id

Compared to the nationalist camp, the Islamic camp has more prominent political leaders with the potential to become serious candidates in the 2004 presidential election. The nationalists "only" have the incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri, ministers Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla, and Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X.

On the contrary, there are many figures who can claim or have claimed Islamic credentials. Among the politicians there are Amien Rais, the speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly, former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid and Zainuddin M.Z. of the United Development Party of Reform (PPP Reformasi), not to mention Vice President Hamzah Haz and justice minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra.

Outside the political parties, the list is slightly shorter: Hasyim Muzadi, Syafii Maarif, the leaders of the Islamic organizations Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah, respectively, the intellectual Nurcholish Madjid and prominent preacher Abdullah Gymnastiar or Aa Gym.

People believe that our politics consist of two main aliran or streams: nationalist and Islamist. Even though a direct presidential election will theoretically give us the opportunity to vote for any candidate, the names up for offer will be limited.

The draft bill on presidential elections is currently under review at the House of Representatives. The draft prepared by the government, the Ministry of Home Affairs in particular, stipulates that any political party that wins at least 20 percent of the vote in the 2004 general election is eligible to nominate presidential/vice presidential candidates.

This stipulation is supported by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and the Golkar Party, which control the two biggest factions in the legislature. The Military/Police faction, with its substantial number of seats, lends its support to PDI Perjuangan and Golkar.

Despite the opposition of smaller parties and the public to this 20 percent threshold, the major parties are maintaining their position. Far from seeking a compromise, the leaders of the major parties have suggested raising the threshold to 35 percent or even 45 percent, to boost their political leverage.

If the 20 percent threshold is applied as one of the conditions for a political party to nominate presidential/vice presidential candidates, internal competition within the Islamic camp will be very sharp.

The 1999 election ended in none of the Islamic political parties, including the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB), securing over 15 percent of the vote. So they will have to form some sort of coalition if they want to be eligible for the presidential race.

At least in the media, Amien, who is also the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN), appears to be the "star" of the Islamic camp.

The media often quotes him as saying that the 2004 presidential duel will be between Megawati and himself. He looks very confident of his candidacy, very different from the kingmaker that he was portrayed as in previous years. PAN has announced that Amien will be its sole presidential candidate, and Amien has established the Amien Rais Center to support his possible candidacy.

But what about the other possibilities? Hamzah Haz' PPP and Gus Dur's PKB won significantly larger percentages of the vote than PAN in the 1999 elections. Hamzah has a much lower public profile than Amien but he has been very diligent in gathering the support of other Muslim leaders, as reflected in his tours from mosque to mosque for Friday prayers. And although Gus Dur had a dismal presidency, his traditional base of support remains relatively intact.

In the last few days PDI Perjuangan and Golkar have indicated that they will probably form a coalition for the coming presidential election. Perhaps Megawati will be the presidential candidate and Golkar -- considering its image as the party of the New Order -- will be happy to have one of its members as vice president until 2009.

Islamic political parties would then likely join forces. Who will be the prince of the Islamic camp? The Islamic party that wins the biggest percentage of the vote would surely claim that princehood. For the moment the best chance lies in Hamzah's hands. Amien will be disappointed (again). Megawati will be challenged by her Vice President (another Brutus?).

Given this situation we can expect the unexpected in the presidential election scheduled for next year.