Who will be candidate of the Islamic camp in 2004?

Who will be candidate of the Islamic camp in 2004?

Muhammad Qodari, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),
Jakarta, Qodari@csis.or.id

Compared to the nationalist camp, the Islamic camp has more
prominent political leaders with the potential to become serious
candidates in the 2004 presidential election. The nationalists
"only" have the incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri,
ministers Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla, and
Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X.

On the contrary, there are many figures who can claim or have
claimed Islamic credentials. Among the politicians there are
Amien Rais, the speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly,
former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid and Zainuddin M.Z.
of the United Development Party of Reform (PPP Reformasi), not to
mention Vice President Hamzah Haz and justice minister Yusril
Ihza Mahendra.

Outside the political parties, the list is slightly shorter:
Hasyim Muzadi, Syafii Maarif, the leaders of the Islamic
organizations Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah, respectively, the
intellectual Nurcholish Madjid and prominent preacher Abdullah
Gymnastiar or Aa Gym.

People believe that our politics consist of two main aliran or
streams: nationalist and Islamist. Even though a direct
presidential election will theoretically give us the opportunity
to vote for any candidate, the names up for offer will be
limited.

The draft bill on presidential elections is currently under
review at the House of Representatives. The draft prepared by the
government, the Ministry of Home Affairs in particular,
stipulates that any political party that wins at least 20
percent of the vote in the 2004 general election is eligible to
nominate presidential/vice presidential candidates.

This stipulation is supported by the Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and the Golkar Party, which
control the two biggest factions in the legislature. The
Military/Police faction, with its substantial number of seats,
lends its support to PDI Perjuangan and Golkar.

Despite the opposition of smaller parties and the public to
this 20 percent threshold, the major parties are maintaining
their position. Far from seeking a compromise, the leaders of the
major parties have suggested raising the threshold to 35 percent
or even 45 percent, to boost their political leverage.

If the 20 percent threshold is applied as one of the
conditions for a political party to nominate presidential/vice
presidential candidates, internal competition within the Islamic
camp will be very sharp.

The 1999 election ended in none of the Islamic political
parties, including the United Development Party (PPP) and the
National Awakening Party (PKB), securing over 15 percent of the
vote. So they will have to form some sort of coalition if they
want to be eligible for the presidential race.

At least in the media, Amien, who is also the chairman of the
National Mandate Party (PAN), appears to be the "star" of the
Islamic camp.

The media often quotes him as saying that the 2004
presidential duel will be between Megawati and himself. He looks
very confident of his candidacy, very different from the
kingmaker that he was portrayed as in previous years. PAN has
announced that Amien will be its sole presidential candidate, and
Amien has established the Amien Rais Center to support his
possible candidacy.

But what about the other possibilities? Hamzah Haz' PPP and
Gus Dur's PKB won significantly larger percentages of the vote
than PAN in the 1999 elections. Hamzah has a much lower public
profile than Amien but he has been very diligent in gathering the
support of other Muslim leaders, as reflected in his tours from
mosque to mosque for Friday prayers. And although Gus Dur had a
dismal presidency, his traditional base of support remains
relatively intact.

In the last few days PDI Perjuangan and Golkar have indicated
that they will probably form a coalition for the coming
presidential election. Perhaps Megawati will be the presidential
candidate and Golkar -- considering its image as the party of the
New Order -- will be happy to have one of its members as vice
president until 2009.

Islamic political parties would then likely join forces.
Who will be the prince of the Islamic camp? The Islamic party
that wins the biggest percentage of the vote would surely claim
that princehood. For the moment the best chance lies in Hamzah's
hands. Amien will be disappointed (again). Megawati will be
challenged by her Vice President (another Brutus?).

Given this situation we can expect the unexpected in the
presidential election scheduled for next year.