Who is the Winner of the Middle East War, America or Iran?
The think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) evaluates that the conflict between the United States (US), Israel, and Iran does not produce an absolute winner. Although Washington holds a military advantage, Tehran is deemed capable of securing strategic benefits beyond the battlefield.
In its analysis, CSIS security expert Daniel Byman states that the successes of the US and Israel are evident on the tactical level. Intensive airstrikes have significantly weakened Iran’s military capabilities, including damaging weapons production facilities, suppressing missile attacks by around 90 per cent, and targeting Tehran’s military elite.
However, these achievements are insufficient to fulfil the US’s broader objectives, such as halting Iran’s nuclear programme and promoting regime change.
“Iran is indeed battered, but not defeated strategically,” Byman writes in his analysis, quoted on Wednesday (8 April 2026).
CSIS assesses that Iran’s strategy from the outset was not to win the war conventionally, but to endure and increase the conflict’s costs for its opponents. Tehran is considered to have successfully implemented this approach.
One of the most significant impacts is the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which has triggered a surge in global energy prices. The rise in oil, gas, and other key commodity prices exerts substantial pressure on the global economy, including on US allies.
Within the US itself, the energy price spike becomes a political burden for President Donald Trump. On a global scale, this situation heightens recession risks and worsens perceptions of Washington.
CSIS also highlights the long-term effects on the US’s geopolitical position. The extensive use of advanced ammunition is deemed to deplete military stocks, potentially weakening US readiness in other regions such as Europe and Asia.
Moreover, the global economic pressures from the war risk sparking anti-US sentiment in various countries. This could complicate Washington’s efforts to build coalitions against strategic rivals like China and Russia.
Nevertheless, Iran also suffers major losses. Its military capabilities are degraded, its proxy networks weakened, and its regional position potentially eroded due to deteriorating relations with Gulf states.
CSIS concludes that this conflict produces a paradox: the US dominates militarily on the battlefield, but Iran has succeeded in creating widespread strategic pressures.
Thus, according to CSIS, the war is not about who wins or loses absolutely. Rather, it concerns how both parties bear significant consequences, both militarily, economically, and geopolitically.