Who is Cai Qi? The Figure Behind China's Control of Access, Security, and Power

When Chinese President Xi Jinping receives state guests, one figure is almost always seated to his right. He is calm, rarely speaks, but determines everything. This figure is Cai Qi.

Although not formally the number two official, Cai Qi is often referred to as the most influential figure after Xi Jinping. This is reflected in the breadth of his strategic responsibilities.

Alongside his formal duties, Cai Qi’s role in Xi’s power structure is far more complex and strategic.

However, his power is not without limits. On the contrary, he exemplifies how Xi builds a precise power system. Cai Qi is made strong enough to support, but not strong enough to rival.

Dividing Power: Strong, But Not Dominant

The level of Cai Qi’s power has been calibrated by Xi from the start by placing him in party power. Meanwhile, for the government side, Xi appointed Li Qiang as head of the State Council of China.

This division of central power into two axes is done by Xi to prevent the emergence of a “number two” figure who is too strong. According to Wu Guoguang, a former political advisor to the Chinese government who is now an academic at Stanford University, the number two position is the one most likely to challenge the main leader.

This division creates internal balance. Cai Qi is strong in political control, Li Qiang dominates administration. No single figure controls both, so both remain dependent on Xi as the central control.

Power Without a Base: Rapid Rise, Full Dependence

In addition to the allocation of power by Xi, Cai Qi’s strength is also built by Xi. Cai Qi does not have a broad political network, so his skyrocketing career is due to his closeness to Xi.

Since being brought by Xi to Beijing in 2014 and joining the National Security Commission, he successfully penetrated the elite Politburo ranks (the party’s top 25 leaders) without going through conventional routes in just three years.

He then became mayor and subsequently party chairman of Beijing. During his tenure, he showed himself as a firm executor in handling air pollution, managing the capital during the pandemic, and implementing controversial policies such as cracking down on migrant workers. Moreover, he is known as a hardline supporter of loyalty to Xi.

However, precisely because of his rapid rise, Cai Qi does not have an independent power base. He has no faction, no strong network of loyalists, and does not stand on his own political foundation. All his authority comes solely from Xi’s trust.

Close to Power, Still Vulnerable to Being Toppled

Although in the innermost circle, Cai Qi’s position is not entirely secure. In recent years, Xi Jinping has shown that even those he elevated himself can be removed, including senior military officials.

On the other hand, Xi also faces limitations in finding new figures who can truly be trusted. This makes figures like Cai Qi remain relevant, at least for now. He has proven experience, loyalty, and effectiveness.

However, in the system built by Xi, balance is maintained through uncertainty. Cai Qi is strong enough to carry out strategic roles, but remains within limits that do not threaten. His closeness to Xi is his greatest source of strength as well as his main vulnerability.