When Will Indonesia Be Hit by Super-Boiling Heat? Here's the Prediction

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts the peak of the dry season in Indonesia will occur between July and September 2026. Conditions are expected to be drier and longer than normal, with the potential emergence of the El Niño phenomenon likely to exacerbate drought in various regions. BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani stated that the peak of the dry season will begin to expand in July before reaching its maximum point in August 2026. ‘Regions predicted to experience the peak of the dry season in July 2026 include parts of Sumatra, small parts of Kalimantan and Java, southern East Nusa Tenggara, northern West Sulawesi, parts of Central Sulawesi, small parts of Maluku, southern Southwest Papua, central West Papua, and eastern Papua,’ Fathani said. BMKG noted that 83 seasonal zones, or around 12.26 per cent of Indonesia’s land area, will experience the peak of the dry season in July. This figure is expected to rise sharply in August to 369 seasonal zones, or about 48.84 per cent of the land area. In August, the peak of the dry season is predicted to hit central Sumatra, most of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, parts of East Nusa Tenggara, most of Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, parts of Maluku and North Maluku, and most of Papua. Meanwhile, 169 seasonal zones, or about 25.41 per cent of Indonesia’s territory, are predicted to enter the peak of the dry season in September. Affected areas include the Bangka Belitung Islands, most of South Sumatra, Lampung, small parts of Java, most of East Nusa Tenggara, southern Kalimantan, most of Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, and the Papua Highlands. Deputy for Climatology at BMKG Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan revealed that the dry season has already begun in several regions. As of the end of May 2026, 200 seasonal zones, or about 11.83 per cent of the land area, have entered the dry season. Areas experiencing the dry season earlier include parts of Sumatra, parts of Java, most of Nusa Tenggara, eastern Central Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua. According to BMKG, this year’s dry season has the potential to be more severe than usual due to the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, which is predicted to persist until early 2027. ‘BMKG predicts the El Niño phenomenon will continue until early 2027, with a 98 per cent chance of reaching moderate intensity and a 62 per cent chance of strong intensity. However, the impact on Indonesia will coincide with the dry season period until mid-October,’ Ardhasena added. Meanwhile, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) has confirmed that the chance of a Godzilla El Niño, an extremely intense El Niño that can trigger extreme drought, is very small this year. However, the public and government still need to be vigilant as the dry season is expected to last longer than normal. Head of BRIN’s Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, Albertus Sulaiman, stated that analysis of various world climate models shows current global climate conditions are more likely to lead to a moderate El Niño, with a probability of around 27 per cent. This condition differs from the super-strong El Niño or Godzilla El Niño that occurred in 1997 and 2015. ‘The 2026 El Niño is not expected to reach extreme levels. However, the dry season is predicted to last longer with below-average rainfall,’ Albertus explained. He noted that El Niño is a phenomenon of warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which disrupts rain cloud formation patterns in Indonesia. Under normal conditions, Indonesia’s warm waters serve as a centre for cloud and rain formation. However, when El Niño occurs, the cloud formation centre shifts towards the Central Pacific, significantly reducing rainfall in Indonesia. Based on BRIN’s predictions, the peak of the 2026 dry season is expected in August. Several areas in Java, particularly West Java such as Bekasi, Cirebon, Kuningan, and Bandung City, have the potential to experience very dry conditions. ‘Overall, the chance of a longer dry season reaches around 81 per cent,’ he explained. Albertus emphasised that the chance of a Godzilla El Niño occurring this year is very small due to several scientific factors. One is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition, which is currently in a neutral phase and is predicted to remain so until April 2027. Additionally, Indonesia and the Pacific region have just experienced a strong El Niño in the 2023-2024 period, meaning the ocean physically lacks sufficient energy to form another super-extreme El Niño in such close succession. Despite this, BRIN has detected signals of an increased risk of an extreme El Niño in the period from late 2027 to mid-2028. Using a stochastic analysis approach with the Fokker-Planck equation, the probability of a Godzilla El Niño emerging during that period is estimated to increase to nearly 40 per cent. ‘This finding serves as an early warning for the government to begin preparing medium-term mitigation strategies,’ he stressed.