When Is Eid al-Fitr 2026? Here Is Muhammadiyah's Schedule and Predictions from NU, BMKG, and BRIN
Jakarta — The determination of Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijriah, or Eid 2026, is poised to differ across Indonesia, much as the start of Ramadan did. Various Islamic institutions and organisations employ different methods in determining the beginning of the month of Shawwal.
To date, Muhammadiyah, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), and the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) have each issued their predictions, whilst the government awaits the results of the isbat session.
Muhammadiyah
Muhammadiyah became the first organisation to establish the Eid date. Through a declaration from the Muhammadiyah Central Leadership regarding the determination of Ramadan, Shawwal, and Dhul-Hijjah 1447 Hijriah, the organisation set 1 Shawwal 1447 Hijriah as falling on Friday, 20 March 2026.
This determination was made using the contemporary astronomical calculation method (hisab hakiki kontemporer) referencing the Single Global Hijriah Calendar (KHGT). With this method, the beginning of the month is determined through astronomical computation without awaiting crescent moon observation.
BRIN
Meanwhile, BRIN predicts Eid al-Fitr will likely fall on Saturday, 21 March 2026. BRIN researcher Thomas Djamaluddin explained that the crescent moon’s position at sunset on 19 March 2026 in the Southeast Asian region does not meet the criteria used by the government.
These criteria refer to the MABIMS standard (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore), namely a minimum crescent moon altitude of 3 degrees and a minimum elongation of 6.4 degrees for visibility to be confirmed.
Based on astronomical calculations, the crescent moon’s position at sunset on 19 March is estimated to still fall below these criteria, making it likely that 1 Shawwal falls on 21 March 2026.
BMKG
The BMKG conveyed a similar assessment. The agency estimates the crescent moon’s altitude at sunset on 19 March 2026 to range from 0.91 degrees in Merauke to 3.13 degrees in Sabang.
Meanwhile, geocentric elongation is estimated to range from 4.54 degrees to 6.1 degrees. This figure is considered not fully meeting the MABIMS criteria for determining the beginning of Shawwal.
The BMKG also cautioned that during the observation process, observers should be alert to the possibility of planets or bright stars located near the moon, which could potentially be mistaken for the crescent.
NU
Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) typically follows the government’s decision in determining the beginning of Shawwal. This is because NU uses the crescent moon observation method combined with astronomical calculation as a computational aid.
Government
The government will only establish the official Eid date through an isbat session held on 19 March 2026 at the Office of the Ministry of Religious Affairs, Jakarta. The session will involve astronomical experts, Islamic community organisations, and scientific institutions such as the BMKG and BRIN.
If observation results show the crescent moon does not meet visibility criteria, Eid al-Fitr 2026 will likely fall on 21 March 2026. However, if the crescent is sighted, Eid could fall on 20 March 2026.
Thus, the potential for differing determinations of Eid remains open, as has occurred several times in previous years in Indonesia.