When enough is enough

The flurry of activity over the weekend has further strengthened rumors in Jakarta of impending drastic measures by President Abdurrahman Wahid as he struggles for his political survival. One of the most talked about scenarios has it that the President is seeking to replace the top leaders of the Army because of their opposition to his plan to declare a state of emergency, which in turn will allow him to dissolve the House of Representatives.

That these rumors continued to resonate in the capital over the weekend suggests that they are, indeed, plausible. That few people believe Abdurrhaman's repeated denials indicates the low opinion they have of their President, who is known not only for his controversial statements, but also his increasingly contradictory and inconsistent statements.

Whether or not these rumors are true, a number of out-of-the- ordinary events over the weekend suggests that something is cooking. Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri cut short her stay in Singapore to hold an all-night meeting with a number of top military generals on Friday night. On Saturday, she canceled her trip to Bali for a meeting with supporters of her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) because of what aides described as an emergency situation in Jakarta.

On Saturday, Army chief of staff Gen. Endriartono Sutarto hosted a meeting of more than 100 retired generals to discuss the political situation in the country. Endriartono, whose job is reportedly on the line because of his refusal to support the President's plan to impose a state of emergency, said the Army would side with the people if they came into conflict with the government.

On Sunday morning, Lt. Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu, the chief of the Army's Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad), assembled his forces in Jakarta to declare their loyalty to the nation. Ryamizard, who is also rumored to be facing the axe, denounced unnamed "traitors" to the nation and promised to fight them.

Finally, there was the Cabinet meeting presided over by Coordinating Minister for Political, Social and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Sunday, which was not only unusual, but was also only scheduled at the last minute on Friday.

The next few days will tell us what these unexplained events at the weekend really mean, but the indications are very disturbing for the life of this nation.

There is strong reason to believe that the President, in his current fight with the House of Representatives, will try to preempt the legislature from convening on May 30, when it is expected to call for a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly to start impeachment proceedings against him. In spite of his own denials, it was the President who first broached the idea of dissolving the House by first imposing a state of emergency.

But the President knows that he cannot do this without the support of the Indonesian Military (TNI), who will have to implement whatever repressive measures are needed under the state of emergency. This is where the rumors of the President's plan to replace generals Endriartono and Ryamizard come in, since both men, who are key figures in the Army, have refused to cooperate with his survival scheme.

Kudos to both generals for standing up to the President on this issue and for the regional military commanders for rallying behind their chiefs. Call it an act of insubordination, but what Endriartono and Ryamizard have done is to deprive the President, as the military's supreme commander, of the chance to turn the Army into his personal political tool. Abdurrahman, who was credited with depoliticizing the military during the first months of his presidency, is now guilty of trying to drag the Army back into politics, this time for his own personal interests.

Clearly, by now President Abdurrahman must realize that he has lost the support of the military, which is crucial for his political survival. He has already lost the support of the majority in the democratically elected House, and therefore the support of the majority of the people in the country.

By now, the President must realize that he is fast running out of options, even including the draconian measure of imposing a state of emergency, to keep himself in office. He has lost credibility and the legitimacy to govern. The only thing he has going for him is the constitutional mandate that he received in October 1999, and the support he derives from his own National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Nahdlatul Ulama Muslim organization. Given the little support he enjoys nationwide, he must know that he cannot remain in power without resorting to ever more repressive measures.

It is the duty of his close friends and aides to tell him that the harder he tries, the more damage he causes, not only to his own reputation or his die-hard supporters, but also to the entire nation.