When enough is enough

When enough is enough

The flurry of activity over the weekend has further
strengthened rumors in Jakarta of impending drastic measures by
President Abdurrahman Wahid as he struggles for his political
survival. One of the most talked about scenarios has it that the
President is seeking to replace the top leaders of the Army
because of their opposition to his plan to declare a state of
emergency, which in turn will allow him to dissolve the House of
Representatives.

That these rumors continued to resonate in the capital over
the weekend suggests that they are, indeed, plausible. That few
people believe Abdurrhaman's repeated denials indicates the low
opinion they have of their President, who is known not only for
his controversial statements, but also his increasingly
contradictory and inconsistent statements.

Whether or not these rumors are true, a number of out-of-the-
ordinary events over the weekend suggests that something is
cooking. Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri cut short her stay
in Singapore to hold an all-night meeting with a number of top
military generals on Friday night. On Saturday, she canceled her
trip to Bali for a meeting with supporters of her Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) because of what
aides described as an emergency situation in Jakarta.

On Saturday, Army chief of staff Gen. Endriartono Sutarto
hosted a meeting of more than 100 retired generals to discuss the
political situation in the country. Endriartono, whose job is
reportedly on the line because of his refusal to support the
President's plan to impose a state of emergency, said the Army
would side with the people if they came into conflict with the
government.

On Sunday morning, Lt. Gen. Ryamizard Ryacudu, the chief of
the Army's Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad), assembled his
forces in Jakarta to declare their loyalty to the nation.
Ryamizard, who is also rumored to be facing the axe, denounced
unnamed "traitors" to the nation and promised to fight them.

Finally, there was the Cabinet meeting presided over by
Coordinating Minister for Political, Social and Security Affairs
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Sunday, which was not only unusual,
but was also only scheduled at the last minute on Friday.

The next few days will tell us what these unexplained events
at the weekend really mean, but the indications are very
disturbing for the life of this nation.

There is strong reason to believe that the President, in his
current fight with the House of Representatives, will try to
preempt the legislature from convening on May 30, when it is
expected to call for a special session of the People's
Consultative Assembly to start impeachment proceedings against
him. In spite of his own denials, it was the President who first
broached the idea of dissolving the House by first imposing a
state of emergency.

But the President knows that he cannot do this without the
support of the Indonesian Military (TNI), who will have to
implement whatever repressive measures are needed under the state
of emergency. This is where the rumors of the President's plan to
replace generals Endriartono and Ryamizard come in, since both
men, who are key figures in the Army, have refused to cooperate
with his survival scheme.

Kudos to both generals for standing up to the President on
this issue and for the regional military commanders for rallying
behind their chiefs. Call it an act of insubordination, but what
Endriartono and Ryamizard have done is to deprive the President,
as the military's supreme commander, of the chance to turn the
Army into his personal political tool. Abdurrahman, who was
credited with depoliticizing the military during the first months
of his presidency, is now guilty of trying to drag the Army back
into politics, this time for his own personal interests.

Clearly, by now President Abdurrahman must realize that he has
lost the support of the military, which is crucial for his
political survival. He has already lost the support of the
majority in the democratically elected House, and therefore the
support of the majority of the people in the country.

By now, the President must realize that he is fast running out
of options, even including the draconian measure of imposing a
state of emergency, to keep himself in office. He has lost
credibility and the legitimacy to govern. The only thing he has
going for him is the constitutional mandate that he received in
October 1999, and the support he derives from his own National
Awakening Party (PKB) and the Nahdlatul Ulama Muslim
organization. Given the little support he enjoys nationwide, he
must know that he cannot remain in power without resorting to
ever more repressive measures.

It is the duty of his close friends and aides to tell him that
the harder he tries, the more damage he causes, not only to his
own reputation or his die-hard supporters, but also to the entire
nation.