When Does 1 Syawal 1447 H Fall? Government's Forecast

Eid al-Fitr 2026 or 1 Syawal 1447 H is approaching fast. The government will convene an isbat session to establish 1 Syawal 1447 H on 19 March 2026.

According to the Joint Ministerial Decree of Three Ministers regarding National Holidays and Joint Leave in 2026 and the Indonesian Islamic Calendar 2026 published by the Ministry of Religious Affairs, the government projects Eid al-Fitr 2026 or 1 Syawal 1447 H will fall on 21 March 2026. Nevertheless, the public is urged to await the isbat session decision.

BRIN’s Forecast: 1 Syawal 1447 H Falls on 21 March 2026

Thomas Djamaluddin, a researcher at the Space Research Centre of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), predicts that Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijri could fall on 21 March 2026. This prediction is based on astronomical calculations relating to the position of the hilal (crescent moon).

Thomas explained that astronomically, at sunset on Thursday (19 March) in Southeast Asian regions, the hilal position does not yet meet the new MABIMS criteria (Ministers of Religious Affairs of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore). This is evident from the calculation map, which still crosses through Central Asia.

“Astronomically, at sunset on 19 March 2026 in the Southeast Asian region, the hilal does not yet meet the new MABIMS criteria, as shown on the yellow curve crossing Central Asia,” Thomas told journalists on Tuesday (10 March 2026).

For reference, MABIMS criteria since 2021/2022 establish the beginning of the Islamic month if the hilal altitude is at least 3 degrees and the elongation is 6.4 degrees.

Under these conditions, according to him, 1 Syawal 1447 H is estimated to fall on 21 March 2026. However, he stated that the decision on Eid al-Fitr’s date must still await the isbat session decision.

“Therefore, 1 Syawal 1447 Hijri falls on 21 March 2026, awaiting the isbat session decision,” he added.

However, Thomas explained there is a possibility of a different date if using alternative criteria. According to the Global Single Hijri Calendar (KHGT) criteria, the moon’s position already meets the requirements.

“Whereas according to the KHGT criteria (purple curve), the moon’s position has met the criteria and the conjunction has occurred before dawn in New Zealand (there is a small note on this map),” he said.

“Therefore, according to KHGT criteria, 1 Syawal 1447 Hijri falls on 20 March 2026,” he added.

Muhammadiyah’s Eid Schedule: 20 March

Unlike the government, Muhammadiyah established the date of 1 Syawal 1447 H earlier. Based on Muhammadiyah Declaration No. 2/MLM/1.0/E/2025 and Muhammadiyah’s Global Single Hijri Calendar (KHGT), 1 Syawal 1447 H (Eid al-Fitr) falls on Friday, 20 March 2026.