When can we resume business?

By Steve Sondakh

JAKARTA (JP): With Indonesia now in the fourth year of its multidimensional crisis, we feel more helpless than ever. To make matters worse, we have no way of knowing when we can work, carry out political activities and lead our lives without being jolted by rumors, rallies, the declining exchange rate of the rupiah and a host of other problems.

Uncertainty shadows us because of the following: (1) Uncertainty in the enforcement of the law. Tommy Soeharto's whereabouts are unknown. How can he be arrested and jailed? (2) Labor issues are still a hot topic, as Ministerial Decree No. 150/2000 on dismissals and severance pay has not yet been revised. (3) Regional autonomy and decentralization is far from being completely ready, but is set to be enacted on Jan. 1, 2001. (4) Four of the nation's top banks have fallen victim to Bank Liquidity Support loans.

The crux of the matter is whether we still have the luxury of delaying solutions, given the price we will all have to pay.

Our currency has continued to slide to a level where there is no longer any psychological barriers. It is now approaching Rp 10,000 to the US dollar and it is possible that in January 2001 it will be above Rp 10,000.

A number of positive economic indicators are powerless against the negative market sentiment, reflected in the impotence of the rupiah.

The loss of confidence in the rupiah was made plain in a survey of housewives, who said they preferred to own U.S. dollars.

A friend jokingly said the rupiah should be renamed the Titanic, to reflect its one-way trip to the bottom of the sea!

Where will we be and where will we be heading if this uncertainty drags on?

Now that we seem to have become insensitive to this protracted crisis, is it is likely we are in for a second crisis. If this new crisis occurs, will it be possible for us to remain afloat?

The longer we ponder these matters, the more we feel that the answers to these questions are becoming blurred. Everything seems vague, hazy and confusing. Or, returning to square one, uncertain.

We are reminded here of the words of Karen Hor, who said: "We may feel genuinely concerned about the condition of the world, though such concern should drive us into action and not into depression."

The writer is a member of the National Economic Restoration Committee and director of PT Hero Supermarket Tbk.