What's brewing?

Ten days after the event, today the fear seems to be growing among observers that what has become known as Black Friday -- the Nov. 13 Semanggi incident -- may be destined to become yet another dark stain on our growing roster of unresolved major cases burdening our collective conscience as a nation. And this time in particular, there is every reason for anyone whose fate as an individual is in any way tied to that of this country and nation to feel at least a little bit disturbed at the way things seem to be developing.

Let's try to take stock of the situation as it has unfolded so far.

Even as youths and students continue to clamor for the trial of former president Soeharto and for the Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto to step down over this bloody incident in which at least nine people died and hundreds were injured, a number of facts have come to light that warrant a deeper examination of the whole affair.

First, forensic medical experts have found fragments of metal bullets in most of the bodies of the victims of the shooting spree. Military authorities have insisted -- and there is no reason so far to disbelieve them -- that no live ammunition was issued to the troops deployed at the site at the time of the incident, but only blanks and rubber bullets. Military and hospital sources, meanwhile, have confirmed that an almost intact bullet measuring 4.47 millimeters in diameter has been extracted from the body of one of the victims. "None of us in the military is armed with this kind of bullet," the military source said.

Second, there have been reports of witnesses claiming that at the height of the protest at the Semanggi cloverleaf bridge snipers fired shots into the crowd of protesters from nearby office towers. At the same time, Munir, the coordinator of the independent Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (Kontras) has announced the exposure of hired infiltrators posing as students to provoke clashes. One of those infiltrators has even claimed to have been warned by pager by his employer to leave the scene moments before the shooting began.

Third, while one could look at the Black Friday incident as an isolated event that was sparked by the burning emotions of the moment, it is impossible in the context of the student protests over the holding of the Special Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), from Nov. 10 to Nov. 13, to overlook the progression of events that took place during the run-up to the session. Most noteworthy, and most visible, in this context was of course the mobilization of more than 100,000 untrained but crudely armed civilian vigilantes under the banner of religion -- certainly a most unusual circumstance considering the military's past aversion to armed nonmilitary units.

With all this in mind, it is tempting to view the statement made on Friday by the highly respected chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama organization, Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) in a new light. Those who must be viewed as having committed treason during the Nov. 13 incident, according to Gus Dur, are not the students or their supporters, but those who fired the live bullets at them. Could it be that Gus Dur was pointing a finger at a certain party or parties who he believes have had a hand in the recent troubles? And what could he mean by saying that since Wiranto insists he is not responsible for the Black Friday shooting, President B.J. Habibie, as supreme commander of the Armed Forces, must take the responsibility?

All this is certainly very confusing for the public at large, especially since several other major cases such as the kidnaping of activists and the Trisakti University shooting incident of last May continue to loom unresolved in the background. Many people are now asking themselves if something big may be brewing in the upper echelons of the nation's political elite. After all it is during periods of instability and transition that political operators thrive.

What all this boils down to is that a fair, open and independent investigation of the Semanggi incident is most urgently needed. Given the public confusion that now exists, this is where the top priority must lie, especially if the political future of the nation is at stake. The public has a right to know -- in crystal-clear detail -- what precisely went and is going on.