What Risks Arise After the Increase in Non-Subsidised Fuel Prices
Director Executive of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara has outlined the risks that could emerge following the increase in non-subsidised fuel prices, while subsidised fuel prices remain unchanged. He is concerned that without adequate supervision, consumers will shift to using subsidised fuel, whose prices are not rising.
He cited the example of Pertamina Dex’s price rising 60 per cent to Rp 14,500 from the previous Rp 23,900 per litre starting Saturday, 18 April 2026. Meanwhile, Pertamina Dex consumers are not only middle- to upper-class vehicles.
“But also industrial machines, heavy equipment in the mining sector, and in the palm oil sector, many of which buy Pertamina Dex,” said Bhima when contacted on Sunday, 19 April 2026, as quoted from Antara. If there is a shift in consumption to subsidised diesel, he fears the supply of that fuel will not be able to meet the surge in demand, and shortages are not out of the question.
“So supervision of subsidised diesel must also be tight, especially outside Java, both for use in logistics and for heavy equipment like those in the mining and plantation industries,” Bhima stated.
To prevent more massive leakage due to the consumption shift caused by the wide price gap between subsidised and non-subsidised diesel, Bhima believes field supervision must be tightened. This could also affect Pertamax Turbo consumers switching to Pertamax, which also has not seen a price increase.
Therefore, Bhima recommends that the government supervise the purchase of subsidised fuel more strictly amid the current increase in non-subsidised fuel prices. Regarding the rise in non-subsidised fuel prices, he considers it reasonable given the rising market prices and Indonesian Crude Price (ICP).
In addition to Pertamina Dex, the price of Pertamax Turbo in the DKI Jakarta area also rose yesterday to Rp 19,400 per litre from Rp 13,100 per litre as of 1 April 2026. “For Pertamax Turbo, the increase is quite high, so consumption will definitely decrease. But where will it shift to? It will shift to Pertamax. The economic price difference for Pertamax is still wide,” Bhima said.
He suspects that the government’s increase in non-subsidised fuel prices such as Pertamax Turbo, Dexlite, and Pertamina Dex is temporary, following the tendency of oil prices to fall due to the decreasing escalation of the Iran-US-Israel war.
Therefore, Bhima stated, besides tighter supervision, incentives are also needed for businesses purchasing non-subsidised fuel. This is because the burden of industrial production costs will increase if they buy non-subsidised fuel.