What is the Godzilla El Niño Phenomenon and Positive IOD? Its Impacts on Indonesia
Currently, the Godzilla El Niño and positive IOD phenomena are widely discussed, particularly on social media. The reason is none other than the ‘Godzilla’ appendage, the name of a famous sea monster from fiction films. However, did you know that behind this cool moniker, the phenomenon actually needs to be heeded?
The Godzilla El Niño is predicted to hit Indonesia in April 2026 for an extended period, as stated by the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) through its official post on Instagram @brin_indonesia.
‘Several global models predict El Niño starting from April 2026 (Figure 1), which will be strengthened by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon (Figure 2),’ BRIN wrote on its Instagram, quoted Thursday (2/4/2026).
So, what are the Godzilla El Niño and positive IOD phenomena? Find the answers below, compiled by detikJogja from the scientific article ‘Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Wind Pattern Distribution at Depati Amir Airport Pangkalpinang’ by Muhamad Bais Ridwan in the Widya Climago Journal, the BMKG website, to BRIN’s Instagram.
What are the Godzilla El Niño and Positive IOD Phenomena?
El Niño is a phenomenon of increased sea surface temperatures in the central to eastern Pacific Ocean region that causes varying impacts in different parts of the world. In several Latin American countries, such as Peru, El Niño actually causes increased rainfall. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, El Niño generally impacts drier conditions and reduced rainfall.
Then, what is Godzilla El Niño? Simply put, Godzilla El Niño is a strong variant of El Niño. This natural event causes the dry season to have a longer duration and be drier than usual.
On the other hand, positive IOD is a significant difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean, marked by a dipole mode index (DMI) value greater than 0.35. In this condition, anomalous winds appear that carry cloud masses moving westward, resulting in reduced cloud formation for rain.
When Will Godzilla El Niño and Positive IOD Occur in Indonesia?
Both phenomena are estimated to occur simultaneously in Indonesia during the dry season, from April to October 2026. During that period, several regions will experience the dry season earlier, tending to be drier and lasting longer than usual.
Nevertheless, the impacts are not uniform. Some regions in northeastern Indonesia still have the potential for relatively high rainfall, indicating differences in weather patterns between regions.
Regions Potentially Entering the Dry Season Earlier
The occurrence of Godzilla El Niño and positive IOD together will cause several regions to be estimated to enter the dry season earlier with drier conditions. Among them:
Java Island
West Nusa Tenggara (NTB)
East Nusa Tenggara (NTT)
Parts of Bali
Regions Potentially Having High Rainfall
The Godzilla El Niño and positive IOD phenomena occurring together do not only bring dry winds. On the contrary, in some other regions of Indonesia that do not experience an earlier dry season, they have the potential for high rainfall, including:
Maluku
Sulawesi
Halmahera
Impacts of Godzilla El Niño and Positive IOD
The environmental impacts of this phenomenon are quite diverse, even tending to be opposite in some areas. Here are some environmental impacts caused by the extreme weather of Godzilla El Niño and positive IOD:
- Prolonged Drought
Regions experiencing reduced rainfall are at risk of facing prolonged drought, especially in strategic areas like the North Coast of Java, which is the national rice barn.
- Disruption of Water Availability
Prolonged drought can disrupt water availability and reduce agricultural productivity, potentially affecting food security. In addition, extreme dry seasons also increase the risk of forest and land fires, particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan.
- Flooding
On the other hand, some regions have the potential to experience rain with quite high intensity, which can trigger flooding even during the dry period. This has the potential to occur, especially in Java Island regions that have limited water absorption areas.
- Optimal Salt Production
Godzilla El Niño and positive IOD do not always bring negative impacts. Hot weather and minimal rain can be utilised to increase salt production, especially in southern Indonesia regions. If managed well, this condition can even support efforts towards salt self-sufficiency.
Health Risks Due to Godzilla El Niño and Positive IOD
In addition to impacting the environment, the Godzilla El Niño and positive IOD phenomena also bring serious threats to public health. Summarised from the Healthline website, hotter temperature conditions lasting for a long time increase the risk of health disorders. Here are several health disorders caused by hot weather, including:
- Migraine
High air temperatures and excessive heat accompanied by extreme humidity can trigger severe headaches. A 2023 study showed that hot weather conditions are one of the main factors causing migraine relapses in many people.
- Heart Attack
When the environmental temperature exceeds the normal body temperature, the heart is forced to work harder and beat faster to circulate blood to the skin surface to help