What is the "Culprit" Behind the JCI's Plunge Ahead of MSCI Rebalancing?

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) closed weaker at the end of trading on Monday (11/5/2026), just before the announcement of the global index rebalancing by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). MSCI will conduct the global index rebalancing on Tuesday (12/5/2026). In that evaluation, MSCI will apply special treatment to certain stocks, particularly those assessed as having high shareholding concentration (HSC). Based on data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI), the IHSG closed down 63.775 points or 0.92%. Throughout the trading session, the index moved fluctuantly. The IHSG briefly reached a daily high of 7,001.679, but selling pressure caused the index to reverse and fall to a low of 6,846.632, before closing below the psychological level of 6,910. Total trading volume reached 41.471 billion shares with a transaction value of Rp 20.534 trillion and a trading frequency of 2.82 million transactions. Of all the stocks traded, 251 shares strengthened, 442 weakened, and 125 were stagnant. It is worth noting that the rupiah exchange rate in the spot market closed under pressure. The Garuda currency depreciated by 32 points or 0.18% to Rp 17,414 per US dollar. In line with that, the Jisdor rupiah rate weakened by Rp 40 or 0.23% to Rp 17,415 per US dollar. “I don’t think it’s about MSCI today. It’s more about the rupiah and all sorts of things,” said Pandu at the Office of the Coordinating Ministry for Food, Central Jakarta, on Monday. From external factors, the market is overshadowed by the re-escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, triggering a surge in global oil prices and raising concerns that global inflation will persist higher for longer. “That oil price increase also makes investors tend to take profits in energy stocks after they had rallied quite high previously,” said Hendra to Kompas.com. As a result, major banking stocks became the main drag on the IHSG, particularly BMRI, BBCA, and BBRI, amid foreign net selling recorded at Rp 659 billion. Sector movements also indicate that the market is still in a wait-and-see phase. The energy sector experienced the deepest weakening in line with corrections in ADRO and ITMG shares, while the financial sector was also burdened by selling in big banks. On the other hand, the infrastructure sector actually supported the market after strengthening 1.52%, signalling the start of fund rotation to more defensive stocks with domestic catalysts. Interestingly, several metal commodity stocks such as ANTM, TINS, and MDKA were still able to hold in the green zone in line with sustained strength in global nickel and copper prices. This shows that market participants are still selectively seeking stocks supported by global commodity price sentiment.