What Beijing’s shrinking youth population reveals about its changing appeal
What Beijing’s shrinking youth population reveals about its changing appeal
Beijing’s resident adult population aged 20 to 29 has nearly halved over the past decade. CNA explores how young Chinese are recalculating the costs and benefits of life in the capital, even as it remains a magnet for talent.
BEIJING: Zhao Haozhe, 20, has never lived anywhere but Beijing.
Yet the second-year nursing student is already looking beyond the Chinese capital as he plans for life after graduation.
While Zhao is confident his skills will be in demand in his home city, he told CNA he plans to prioritise opportunities elsewhere, likely outside China’s first-tier cities, where he believes the cost of building an independent life will be lower.
“I am curious about living outside my home city, away from my family, and forging a life on my own,” said Zhao, who is enrolled in a diploma programme at a higher education institute in Beijing’s northern Changping district.
“Cost of living and housing rentals are relatively lower elsewhere, so it should be easier to live even without the support of family in my home city,” he added.
CHANGING CALCULATIONS
Zhao’s thinking reflects a wider recalibration among young people in Beijing.
The capital’s longstanding appeal as a launchpad for education, careers and upward mobility is increasingly being weighed against rising job competition, high housing costs and the pull of opportunities elsewhere in China and beyond.
Over the past decade, Beijing’s resident population aged 20 to 29 fell by about 46 per cent, from around 4.62 million in 2015 to 2.49 million in 2024, according to calculations published in May by Chinese business publication Economic Observer, based on official municipal data.
Resident population refers to people who regularly live in a locality for more than six months. This means the figures include young people from elsewhere in China who study or work in Beijing, not only those born and registered in the capital.
Analysts caution against reading the numbers as a simple exodus, saying the decline must be read against broader demographic shifts, smaller youth cohorts, changing migration flows and the city’s evolving urban and labour market conditions.
“I would be cautious about reading the decline in Beijing’s youth population simply as evidence that Beijing is losing its appeal to young people,” Zhao Litao, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute (EAI), told CNA.
“The trend is real, but it reflects several forces operating at the same time.”
Yet the shrinking youth segment has already had tangible effects on the city, including softer demand in parts of the housing and rental market, according to property agents interviewed by CNA.
In interviews with CNA, students, housing agents and experts described a city that continues to attract young talent, but where the calculations around staying are becoming increasingly complex.
The question is not whether Beijing remains a magnet for opportunity - it is whether staying in the capital is becoming a more selective and costly option for a new generation of young people.
That calculation is already playing out for Cui Xuan, a 22-year-old from Shandong province who is less than two months away from completing her product design degree at a public university in Beijing.
After graduating, she plans to take up a work offer in Sydney, where she interned for a year as part of her studies.
Like Zhao Haozhe, Cui said her decision was not driven by a lack of opportunities in Beijing. Rather, she has begun to question whether the rewards of living and working in the city are worth the pressures at this stage of her life.
“Commuting in Beijing is challenging,” she said. “I know people in similar jobs who spend two hours each way getting to work. I am not sure I want to do that.”
For Cui, the concern is not only distance, but also pace.
“In my line of work, the stress and demands of living in a fast-paced city like Beijing can be too much … there is no work-life balance,” she said.
These pressures have also made her rethink whether she wants to pursue work directly related to her degree.
“I may not want to work in the field I studied,” she said. “There is more quality of life elsewhere.”
THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE SHIFT
The fall in Beijing’s young adult population has been steep enough to change the age profile of a city that once had a far higher share of this group than the national average.
In 2015, residents aged 20 to 29 made up 21.3 per cent of Beijing’s resident population.By 2024, that share had fallen to 11.4 per cent, close to the national average of 10.56 per cent, according to Economic Observer’s analysis.
At the same time, the city’s older population grew; residents aged 60 and above increased from 3.41 million in 2015 to 5.14 million in 2024, a rise of around 1.74 million.
By 2024, for every 100 residents in Beijing, about 11 were aged 20 to 29, while 24 were aged 60 and above.
Official municipal data shows Beijing’s overall resident population has remained broadly stable in recent years, edging down from about 21.89 million in 2020 to 21.83 million at the end of 2024 - suggesting the story is less about population loss than a shift in who is living in the capital.
EAI’s Zhao Litao said Beijing’s youth population decline is not an isolated case, given that the size and share of the 20-29 age group have been declining across China.
Economic Observer’s analysis found that Henan, Hebei and Anhui also saw clear declines in their young adult population shares, with Henan’s resident population aged 20 to 29 falling from 14.75 million in 2015 to 10.37 million in 2024.
But Beijing stands out because its young adult share had once been far above the national average before falling close to it.
“This looks less like a sudden collapse of attractiveness and more like a correction from an unusually high earlier level,” he said.
Peng Xiujian, a senior research fellow at Victoria Unive