What Beijing wants from a possible Xi state visit to North Korea

analysis East Asia

What Beijing wants from a possible Xi state visit to North Korea

A potential state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pyongyang reportedly soon would mark his first overseas trip of the year and reinforce Beijing’s influence as North Korea-Russia ties deepen amid global tensions, analysts say.

BEIJING: Is Chinese President Xi Jinping set to make a state visit to North Korea soon? This prospect has surfaced in recent days, following media reports and sightings of a Chinese delegation in Pyongyang, and attracted international scrutiny over its timing.

First, the trip could be the Chinese supremo’s first publicly confirmed overseas trip of 2026, therefore giving the choice of destination added significance.

It will also come shortly after Xi’s recent meetings with both United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin this month, both of which thrust Pyongyang back in the diplomatic frame in different ways.

Third, such a trip would come shortly after Kim visited China only last September to attend a military parade that marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, during which he met with Xi.

Xi himself last visited North Korea in 2019, where he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and received full military honours, underscoring the political importance Pyongyang attached to the visit.

Analysts say Xi’s visit to Pyongyang would signal Beijing’s intent to recalibrate influence over North Korea and the wider Korean Peninsula.

Hao Nan, Korean Peninsula Specialist Fellow with the New York-based National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP), told CNA that the potential visit would also show China remains “indispensable” to managing Northeast Asian security.

“(China) wants to signal to (South Korea, Japan, Russia and the US) that North Korea remains within its strategic orbit, even as Russia-North Korea ties deepen,” he added.

At the same time, he said Beijing will “try to reassure Pyongyang, warn Washington and its allies” while avoiding “an explicit declaration of a China-North Korea-Russia axis”.

A TRIP THAT CARRIES SYMBOLIC WEIGHT

According to a TIME report published on May 20, citing unnamed sources, Xi was expected to pay a state visit to North Korea as early as the final week of May.

The report cited one source briefed on the arrangements as saying China and North Korea would “coordinate more against the new militarism of Japan”, amid Beijing’s concerns over Japan’s security posture under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Separately, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported, citing unnamed government sources, that Xi could visit North Korea in late May or early June.

A source also said that a team of Chinese security and protocol officials had recently been in Pyongyang, suggesting preparations for a possible Xi visit.

But China has remained tight-lipped about Xi’s potential state visit to North Korea.

When asked about Xi’s trip on Monday (May 25), Beijing foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said she had “no information” to offer - only reiterating that “China and the (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) are friendly socialist neighbours” whose long-running exchanges served both sides’ interests and regional peace and stability.

A report by NK News on May 26 looking at satellite imagery showed no preparations at Kim Il Sung Square as of May 24. Major welcome ceremonies are held for visiting foreign leaders at the site.

But the groundwork appears to be in place, said Hao, citing an earlier visit to Pyongyang by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in April - although he remains cautious about the timing - saying that a visit might not necessarily take place in the coming days.

Kim’s most recent visit to China took place in September 2025, when he travelled to Beijing by his signature armoured train to attend Victory Day commemorations and joined Xi and Putin at a military parade in Tiananmen Square.

Xi’s first overseas trips in recent years have often carried diplomatic signals.

In 2023, Xi chose Moscow as his first foreign trip after being re-elected as Chinese president.

In 2024, he began overseas travel to Europe, with stops in France, Serbia and Hungary.

In 2025, he travelled to Southeast Asia, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia.

If North Korea becomes his first foreign destination this year, it would stand out as a pointed choice, experts said.

Lim Tai Wei, an East Asian affairs observer and professor at Soka University in Tokyo, said any trip would carry added significance because Xi would be making it at a time when he has not been travelling abroad.

“North Korea is China’s only official ally,” Lim said, adding that such a visit would carry “symbolic importance” in Northeast Asia’s high-context political culture.

RECALIBRATING TIES

The challenge for Beijing is not simply whether North Korea is close to China, but how close it moves to Russia - and whether that leaves China with less room to shape Pyongyang’s choices, analysts said.

Russia-North Korea ties have deepened sharply since Putin and Kim signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in Pyongyang in June 2024 - pledging military and other assistance if either side is attacked.

North Korea has also sent troops and weapons to support Russia’s war against Ukraine, while both sides have moved to expand transport and economic links across their shared border.

China does not necessarily view deeper Russia-North Korea ties primarily as a problem, given the strategic value of a loose counteralignment against tighter US-South Korea-Japan coordination, said NCAFP’s Hao.

But it also does not mean Beijing wants a formal bloc, he said.

“China does not want to formalise this into a rigid ‘axis’ because that would help Washington consolidate its alliances and accelerate Japan’s military normalisation and further constrain the US-China negotiation space,” Hao said.

For China, the issue is calibration, he added.

“North Korea should remain strategically useful,