Wet season may last till March: BMG

JAKARTA (JP): With last year's prolonged El Nio-induced dry spell still fresh in people's minds, scientists now warn that the country could face an extended wet period lasting through March.

Paulus Agus Winarso, head of the forecasting and service division at the national Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) here said an extended wet season was likely due to a La Nina weather phenomenon which is most easily described as the opposite of El Nio.

"It's really just a name, but if we look at records, the El Nino phenomenons of 1982, 1987, 1991 and 1994 were immediately followed by excessive rainy periods.

"It's really a way for nature to balance its energy," Paulus told The Jakarta Post.

The most serious threat lies in the danger of massive floods as a result of intense downpours.

Paulus urged both the government and the public to begin taking precautionary measures to avoid flashfloods.

The BMG itself has regional centers in Jakarta; Medan, North Sumatra; Denpasar, Bali; Ujungpandang, South Sulawesi and Jayapura, Irian Jaya to keep the public up to date on weather reports.

The El Nio weather phenomenon created dry conditions that helped stoke massive forest fires in Kalimantan and Sulawesi last year and early this year.

But El Nio now seems to be easing. According to satellite shots, areas of the Pacific Ocean warmed by El Nio are receding and colder temperatures are creeping in, resulting in rain.

Paulus, who earned his doctorate in meteorology from the University of the Philippines, said predictions of La Nina were a logical consequence of the hot weather stream.

"This could last for a year," he said of the likelihood of an extended wet season.

"But we still have to examine the pattern of the rains each month. In June, July and August, rains are usually minimal.

"It will begin to get wetter in August and peak in between December (1998) and March (1999) in Java. In Sumatra and Kalimantan, it may peak twice, in October (1998) and March (1999)," he said.

However, given the anomalies in current weather conditions, it is difficult to predict which regions will receive the heaviest downpours, Paulus said.

"It could happen in regions where floods have never happened before ... but the most important thing is for those living in flood-prone areas to anticipate it from the beginning," he said. (aan)