West Sumatran Economy Slows Over Past Decade as Experts Highlight Structural Issues

An economist and lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business at Andalas University (Unand), Hefrizal Handra, has examined the causes of economic growth deceleration in West Sumatera Province (Sumbar) over the past decade. The region’s economic growth has experienced a consistent slowdown trend.

“West Sumatera’s economic growth figures remain positive, but from a historical perspective, they demonstrate a consistent deceleration trend exceeding one decade,” said Hefrizal Handra in Padang, West Sumatera, on Wednesday.

Citing data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) for West Sumatera, regional economic growth in 2025 is projected at 3.37 per cent. Although the regional economy is growing, a slowdown is evident over the past 10 years.

“This pattern did not occur suddenly, but rather gradually and consistently. This demonstrates that the deceleration is not merely short-term economic fluctuation,” said Hefrizal, who is also Vice-Rector II of Unand.

According to him, if the slowdown were purely cyclical in nature, the recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic should have restored growth to the 5–6 per cent range.

“Recovery has indeed occurred, but it has not returned us to the previous growth trajectory. This means the problems faced are fundamentally structural in nature,” he explained.

From the expenditure perspective, the composition of regional gross domestic product (PDRB) has shifted. The share of household consumption has declined over the past decade, whilst net exports have increased and investment has remained relatively stable. However, these changes have not yet fully driven acceleration, he said.

“The problem is not the magnitude of any single expenditure component, but rather the quality of the underlying production structure,” he stated.