Weekly Review: Coal Prices Refuse to Fall, Rising for Four Consecutive Weeks
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — Newcastle coal prices extended their gains for a fourth consecutive week. Asian energy demand and supply uncertainty continued to support the market, although the pace of the rise began to slow.
The NCFMc2 contract closed at US$155 a tonne on Friday (23 October 2026), up US$0.40, or 0.26%, from US$154.60 at the end of the previous week.
That increase was far smaller than the 2.72% rise recorded the week before. Prices briefly reached a closing high of US$156.05 on Monday, then fell to US$152.50 on Wednesday before recovering over the final two trading sessions.
The movement indicates that buyers are still stepping in when prices fall, but the market has yet to find enough momentum to break above its level at the start of the week.
India’s stocks are low, but it is prioritising domestic supply
Inventories at Indian power plants have again come into focus. Reuters reported that 96 of 191 plants had critically low coal stocks as of 19 October, up from 60 in mid-September. Their supplies were sufficient to generate electricity for fewer than three days.
Hot weather has increased electricity demand, while low rainfall has reduced hydropower generation. Coal-fired plants have had to make up the shortfall, keeping fuel demand high.
However, this situation has not automatically triggered a surge in imports. Bloomberg reported that the Indian government had suspended plans to require coal blending with imported coal, as high international prices and a weaker rupee have increased purchase costs.
The government has instead opted to encourage production by Coal India and speed up deliveries by rail. On 22 October, an Indian Ministry of Power official said supplies to power plants had reached a record 2.6 million tonnes a day and predicted that conditions would soon return to normal.
This means that the need to replenish stocks still offers scope for additional demand. The scale of import purchases will depend on whether domestic supply can meet power plants’ needs.
Japan and South Korea provide additional support
In a report dated 19 October, Fitch Ratings highlighted a shift from gas to coal in Japan and South Korea, prompted by disruption to Middle Eastern energy markets.
This has helped sustain demand, particularly for higher-calorific coal. Stockpiling ahead of winter is also expected to support prices over the coming months.
Indonesian shipments remain constrained
Indonesia faces uncertainty over production quotas and export policy. Drought, which has lowered water levels in the Barito River, has also constrained barge transport.
A report published by APBI this week said seaborne Indonesian coal exports fell 18.1% year on year in September. Production and shipping obstacles have made the availability of export supply difficult to predict.
While these conditions support international prices, they also raise costs and hamper sales by domestic producers.
China could ease supply pressures if mine production recovers after safety inspections. Additional domestic output could reduce the need for imports and limit price increases.