Warning! Crypto Market Rally Faces Potential Disruption
The crypto market moved mixed during trading on Sunday (4/10/2026). Bitcoin remains stable near US$85,000, but its momentum has begun to limit following a sharp recovery since mid-September.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin stood at US$84,777.58, up 0.17% in the last 24 hours and 0.61% over the past week. Ethereum rose 0.57% to US$2,692.70, while BNB increased by 2.08% to US$784.72.
However, the gains have not been uniform. XRP, Hyperliquid, and Dogecoin continue to weaken on a weekly basis. Zcash even corrected by 20.11% over the week, indicating pressure on several assets following previous rallies.
This divergence suggests that investors are becoming more selective. While Bitcoin has managed to maintain its price, its recovery has not been followed by the entire market, meaning it is premature to conclude that a broad crypto rally has begun.
US Labour Data Eases Fed Pressure
Positive sentiment stems from the slowdown in the United States labour market. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics recorded non-farm payroll additions of only 29,000 in September, down from 133,000 in August after revisions.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, while wage growth was limited to 0.1% monthly. These conditions strengthen the rationale for the Federal Reserve to wait before further raising interest rates.
According to a Reuters report on Friday (2/10/2026), the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the October meeting reached approximately 80%. However, the chance of a hike in December remains around 86% based on LSEG data.
This means the market has gained breathing room in the short term, but the risk of tightening has not disappeared. Expectations of a pause in rate hikes cannot immediately be translated into a signal for cuts.
For Bitcoin, these conditions help maintain risk appetite. However, the sustainability of the uptrend still requires new demand, rather than just optimism that the Fed will delay its next move.
High Yields and Fluctuating ETF Inflows
Pressure continues to emerge from the bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield was recorded at approximately 5.28% in a Reuters report on Friday, after briefly dropping in response to employment data.
High yields increase the attractiveness of interest-bearing instruments and the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. Such conditions could limit a rally if not balanced by strong new buying.
Meanwhile, Farside data shows that Bitcoin spot ETF inflows have begun to fluctuate. Net inflows were US$66.2 million on 29 September, followed by an outflow of US$148.7 million on 30 September, before returning to an inflow of US$102.7 million on 1 October.
This pattern does not yet indicate that investors are abandoning Bitcoin en masse. However, institutional buying has not been consistent. If demand weakens as long-term holders take profits, Bitcoin could undergo a correction despite a positive long-term outlook.
Outlook: Bullish, but Tactical Shorts Target US$70,000-US$78,000
The overall outlook remains bullish, but Bitcoin is prone to a correction before continuing its ascent. The previous sharp recovery, limited weekly gains, and yield pressure are reasons to be wary of profit-taking.
Nevertheless, these conditions do not guarantee an overshoot in price. Technical confirmation still requires reading momentum indicators and volume on clear timeframes.
In a correction scenario, the US$85,000-US$88,000 area serves as an observation zone for tactical shorts if price resistance and weakening momentum emerge. The downside targets lie in the US$70,000-US$78,000 range within the coming weeks.
US$78,000 serves as the initial target if Bitcoin loses the US$82,000 and US$80,000 areas sustainably. Meanwhile, US$70,000 represents a deeper correction scenario requiring additional pressure, such as repeated ETF outflows or strengthening expectations of a ‘higher for longer’ policy.
From the US$85,000-US$88,000 opening area, these targets represent a decline of approximately 8%-20%. Thus, this thesis anticipates a significant correction rather than mere minor fluctuations.
Tactical shorts can coexist with long-term Bitcoin spot holdings. However, the size of both positions determines whether a portfolio maintains net exposure to Bitcoin’s upside.
A sustained breakout above US$88,000-US$90,000 would weaken the short thesis. Prices do not necessarily have to fall simply because they previously rose sharply.
Short exposure can be limited to a maximum equivalent to buffer capital, without doubling positions. However, shorting still utilises instruments with their own funding terms and risks. If using spot only without leverage, the approach involves selling a portion of owned Bitcoin and repurchasing during a correction.