Warming up in Kyoto

Warming up in Kyoto

One of the chief reasons for the current lack of rainfall in
Indonesia this year, besides the El Nio phenomenon, is the
accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which comes from
burning fossil fuels, land clearing activities and forest
burning. This year's rainy season, which should have started in
October as usual, is not expected to start until this month in
most parts of the country; others have to wait until next month.

Scientists have observed that the amount of rainfall in areas
along the equator, like Indonesia, has fallen by 10 percent in
the last 30 to 40 years; while at the same time it has increased
by the same rate in temperate areas like North America and
Europe.

The huge accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is
also believed capable of increasing the mean air temperature of
the Earth by up to five degrees centigrade by the middle of the
next century. This is caused by what is known as the greenhouse
effect: poisonous gases, like carbon dioxide, resulting from the
burning of oil and other fossil fuels form layers of pollution
that trap solar radiation in the atmosphere which then causes a
buildup of heat.

Global warming for many people on Earth may sound like an
abstract threat. But for people who live on islands, like
Indonesia and those in the Pacific Ocean, the threat is real.
Rising temperatures will melt polar ice which in turn will raise
the sea level, and islands will perish. There is no question that
people in Indonesia and other island countries have, as should
the rest of the Earth's inhabitants, a stake in reversing, or at
least, stopping the global warming trend.

That proves easier said than done. Burning oil and coal is at
the root of modern civilization. It is what propels factories
which provide jobs for millions of people, and it is what propels
most of the present day's modes of transportation which afford
mobility to the Earth's inhabitants.

Scientists, businesspeople, government officials and
environmental experts are currently meeting in the ancient
Japanese city of Kyoto to discuss global warming. The fact that
more than 160 countries are taking part shows that global warming
is of grave concern. But expressing concern is one thing and
doing something about that concern is, apparently, a totally
different thing.

The news in the run-up to, and the first few days of, the
Kyoto meeting has not been very encouraging. The meeting had been
expected to produce a global commitment to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. Instead, it is degenerating into a farce. The
countries that are the worst polluters have gone to Kyoto with
conditional commitments.

The United States, topping the list of polluters, is setting a
moderate target of stabilizing gas emission at 1990 levels
between 2008 and 2012. The U.S. government insists on the
inclusion of large developing countries, particularly China and
India, joining in any commitment made in Kyoto. The European
Union is proposing a 15 percent cut in gas emissions from the
1990 level by 2010. Host Japan, desperate for any agreement, is
proposing a 5 percent cut. Developing countries meanwhile refuse
to be part of any binding agreement, pointing out that their per
capita consumption of oil and other fossil fuels is no way near
the American, Japanese or European levels.

The real reason behind American reluctance for a bolder cut is
the powerful business lobby and workers' unions, both of which
have so much to lose from any move to cut gas emissions.

The Kyoto meeting comes five years after the Rio de Janeiro
Earth Summit in which the subject of global warming was first
discussed internationally. Kyoto could have been a historic
opportunity for world leaders to make a difference to the Earth's
future. Such high hopes have now to be curtailed by what many
leaders call practical or pragmatical thoughts. However, in 50
years time, if and when global warming is rearing its ugly head,
practical and pragmatical will be the last words historians use
to describe present day leaders.

The only thing that could be achieved from such a gathering is
an even greater awareness that we all live under one roof and
that anything we do to our surroundings will affect us all in the
end. Kyoto may end up simply as another step in maintaining the
momentum of international awareness of the issue. Instead of
making history, Kyoto is simply warming up the globe to the day
when its inhabitants eventually get their act together to save
the Earth.