Warming up in Kyoto

One of the chief reasons for the current lack of rainfall in Indonesia this year, besides the El Nio phenomenon, is the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which comes from burning fossil fuels, land clearing activities and forest burning. This year's rainy season, which should have started in October as usual, is not expected to start until this month in most parts of the country; others have to wait until next month.

Scientists have observed that the amount of rainfall in areas along the equator, like Indonesia, has fallen by 10 percent in the last 30 to 40 years; while at the same time it has increased by the same rate in temperate areas like North America and Europe.

The huge accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is also believed capable of increasing the mean air temperature of the Earth by up to five degrees centigrade by the middle of the next century. This is caused by what is known as the greenhouse effect: poisonous gases, like carbon dioxide, resulting from the burning of oil and other fossil fuels form layers of pollution that trap solar radiation in the atmosphere which then causes a buildup of heat.

Global warming for many people on Earth may sound like an abstract threat. But for people who live on islands, like Indonesia and those in the Pacific Ocean, the threat is real. Rising temperatures will melt polar ice which in turn will raise the sea level, and islands will perish. There is no question that people in Indonesia and other island countries have, as should the rest of the Earth's inhabitants, a stake in reversing, or at least, stopping the global warming trend.

That proves easier said than done. Burning oil and coal is at the root of modern civilization. It is what propels factories which provide jobs for millions of people, and it is what propels most of the present day's modes of transportation which afford mobility to the Earth's inhabitants.

Scientists, businesspeople, government officials and environmental experts are currently meeting in the ancient Japanese city of Kyoto to discuss global warming. The fact that more than 160 countries are taking part shows that global warming is of grave concern. But expressing concern is one thing and doing something about that concern is, apparently, a totally different thing.

The news in the run-up to, and the first few days of, the Kyoto meeting has not been very encouraging. The meeting had been expected to produce a global commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, it is degenerating into a farce. The countries that are the worst polluters have gone to Kyoto with conditional commitments.

The United States, topping the list of polluters, is setting a moderate target of stabilizing gas emission at 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. The U.S. government insists on the inclusion of large developing countries, particularly China and India, joining in any commitment made in Kyoto. The European Union is proposing a 15 percent cut in gas emissions from the 1990 level by 2010. Host Japan, desperate for any agreement, is proposing a 5 percent cut. Developing countries meanwhile refuse to be part of any binding agreement, pointing out that their per capita consumption of oil and other fossil fuels is no way near the American, Japanese or European levels.

The real reason behind American reluctance for a bolder cut is the powerful business lobby and workers' unions, both of which have so much to lose from any move to cut gas emissions.

The Kyoto meeting comes five years after the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in which the subject of global warming was first discussed internationally. Kyoto could have been a historic opportunity for world leaders to make a difference to the Earth's future. Such high hopes have now to be curtailed by what many leaders call practical or pragmatical thoughts. However, in 50 years time, if and when global warming is rearing its ugly head, practical and pragmatical will be the last words historians use to describe present day leaders.

The only thing that could be achieved from such a gathering is an even greater awareness that we all live under one roof and that anything we do to our surroundings will affect us all in the end. Kyoto may end up simply as another step in maintaining the momentum of international awareness of the issue. Instead of making history, Kyoto is simply warming up the globe to the day when its inhabitants eventually get their act together to save the Earth.